By 2100, US Cities Where 100 Degree Temperatures Will Hit Daily in Summer

Earlier this month, the Trump administration announced plans to repeal greenhouse gas emissions standards for power plants operating in the United States. The proposal is only the latest in a series of White House initiatives that effectively bolster the fossil fuel industry and hamper the clean energy transition. If implemented, the consequences for the climate could be dire. 

The United States is one of the leading contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions. As such, American energy policy has outsized implications in the fight against global warming. Reductions to clean energy commitments by major polluters like the United States could alter the climate landscape beyond recognition in the coming decades. 

According to a report from the non-profit research and advocacy group Climate Central, a prolonged acceleration of fossil fuel consumption will send summer temperatures surging across the country. In the next 75 years, summer in Minneapolis would feel more like summer in Tulsa, Oklahoma, and daily highs in places like Austin and Las Vegas would be closer to those currently felt in parts of the Middle East. In some major cities across the Southern and Western United States, 100-plus degree temperatures will likely become the daily norm by the end of the century.

Using data from Climate Central, Climate Crisis 247 identified the U.S. cities where daily summertime temperatures will rise into the triple digits by the year 2100. We ranked all cities with available data on forecasted average daily highs during the summer season by the end of this century under a scenario of reduced clean energy commitments. Calculations were made by adding the forecasted temperature increase to average summer temperatures in 2025, as reported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Only cities where average daily highs in the summer of 2025 were below 100°F and forecasted average daily highs in the summer of 2100 exceed 100°F were considered. Cities are ranked by the projected, absolute change in daily summer highs. Supplemental data on cities with summer climates comparable to the projected climates of these cities are also from Climate Central. Comparison city proximities, where available, are approximations based on driving distance. 

10. Fresno, California

• Projected increase in avg. daily summer high by 2100: +7.4°F
• Projected avg. daily high in summer 2100: 104.5°F
• Avg. daily high in summer 2025: 97.1°F
• City with a climate comparable to 2100 projection: Peoria, Arizona (approx. 600 miles southeast of Fresno)

9. Abilene, Texas

• Projected increase in avg. daily summer high by 2100: +7.5°F
• Projected avg. daily high in summer 2100: 102.1°F
• Avg. daily high in summer 2025: 94.6°F
• City with a climate comparable to 2100 projection: Dubai, United Arab Emirates

8. Ft. Smith, Arkansas

• Projected increase in avg. daily summer high by 2100: +7.6°F
• Projected avg. daily high in summer 2100: 100.1°F
• Avg. daily high in summer 2025: 92.5°F
• City with a climate comparable to 2100 projection: Piedras Negras, Mexico (approx. 770 miles southwest of Ft. Smith)

7. Austin, Texas

• Projected increase in avg. daily summer high by 2100: +7.6°F
• Projected avg. daily high in summer 2100: 103.3°F
• Avg. daily high in summer 2025: 95.7°F
• City with a climate comparable to 2100 projection: Dubai, United Arab Emirates

6. Little Rock, Arkansas

• Projected increase in avg. daily summer high by 2100: +7.8°F
• Projected avg. daily high in summer 2100: 100.7°F
• Avg. daily high in summer 2025: 92.9°F
• City with a climate comparable to 2100 projection: Navojoa, Mexico (approx. 1,700 miles southwest of Little Rock)

5. Dallas, Texas

• Projected increase in avg. daily summer high by 2100: +7.8°F
• Projected avg. daily high in summer 2100: 101.2°F
• Avg. daily high in summer 2025: 93.4°F
• City with a climate comparable to 2100 projection: Ciudad Obregón, Mexico (approx. 1,250 miles southwest of Dallas)

4. Waco, Texas

• Projected increase in avg. daily summer high by 2100: +7.8°F
• Projected avg. daily high in summer 2100: 101.4°F
• Avg. daily high in summer 2025: 93.6°F
• City with a climate comparable to 2100 projection: Ad Dammām, Saudi Arabia

3. Wichita Falls, Texas

• Projected increase in avg. daily summer high by 2100: +8.3°F
• Projected avg. daily high in summer 2100: 101.2°F
• Avg. daily high in summer 2025: 92.9°F
• City with a climate comparable to 2100 projection: Luxor, Egypt 

2. Salt Lake City, Utah

• Projected increase in avg. daily summer high by 2100: +8.6°F
• Projected avg. daily high in summer 2100: 102.7°F
• Avg. daily high in summer 2025: 94.1°F
• City with a climate comparable to 2100 projection: Los Mochis, Mexico (approx. 1,300 miles south of Salt Lake City)

1. Grand Junction, Colorado

• Projected increase in avg. daily summer high by 2100: +8.7°F
• Projected avg. daily high in summer 2100: 102.0°F
• Avg. daily high in summer 2025: 93.3°F
• City with a climate comparable to 2100 projection: Edinburg, Texas (approx. 1,300 miles southeast of Grand Junction)