A Severe Hail Storm Could Hit These Cities This Weekend
https://climatecrisis247.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/Probability-of-hail-August-1-to-3-2025-150x150.pngA late-summer storm system is forecast to bring severe weather to parts of the Central Plains and Midwest this weekend, with isolated thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. While not as widespread or intense as earlier spring outbreaks, forecasters warn that unstable air and moisture in the atmosphere could spark storms with hailstones larger than one inch in diameter – especially across portions of Kansas, Nebraska, and eastern Colorado on Friday and Saturday.
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There are 17 cities with populations of at least 50,000 that face at least a 15% chance of hail over the next three days, representing nearly three million Americans. Some cities have a non-zero chance of extreme hail – storms with hailstones larger than two inches in diameter – that could cause significant damage to roofs, windows, vehicles, and other property. A closer look at the data reveals the cities facing the biggest hail threat this weekend.
To determine the cities that could get hit worst by hail this weekend, Climate Crisis 247 reviewed data on hail probability from the National Digital Forecast Database of the NOAA’s National Weather Service. Cities were ranked based on the probability of experiencing hail or extreme hail – hailstones larger than two inches in diameter – within 25 miles of their border from August 1 to 3, 2025. Probabilities for individual severe weather phenomena were normalized and combined into one index score. Supplemental data on the total value of owner-occupied homes and population are from the U.S. Census Bureau. Only cities with at least 50,000 residents were considered.
25. Pueblo West, CO
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 71 storms
- Value of all homes: $4.0 billion
- Population: 34,337
24. Great Falls, MT
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 48 storms
- Value of all homes: $4.1 billion
- Population: 60,373
23. Rapid City, SD
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 359 storms
- Value of all homes: $5.5 billion
- Population: 75,632
22. Pueblo, CO
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 5.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 149 storms
- Value of all homes: $6.5 billion
- Population: 111,430
21. Aurora, CO
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 7.5%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 270 storms
- Value of all homes: $39.8 billion
- Population: 387,349
20. Centennial, CO
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 7.7%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 51 storms
- Value of all homes: $20.8 billion
- Population: 107,702
19. Highlands Ranch, CO
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 9.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 44 storms
- Value of all homes: $20.1 billion
- Population: 101,514
18. Denver, CO
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 12.5%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 324 storms
- Value of all homes: $104.5 billion
- Population: 710,800
17. Gillette, WY
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 56 storms
- Value of all homes: $2.4 billion
- Population: 33,158
16. Ken Caryl, CO
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 11 storms
- Value of all homes: $6.1 billion
- Population: 33,505
15. Englewood, CO
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 15 storms
- Value of all homes: $3.9 billion
- Population: 33,634
14. Windsor, CO
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 28 storms
- Value of all homes: $5.9 billion
- Population: 33,905
13. Dakota Ridge, CO
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 18 storms
- Value of all homes: $5.8 billion
- Population: 34,234
12. Brighton, CO
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 34 storms
- Value of all homes: $4.5 billion
- Population: 40,569
11. Littleton, CO
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 61 storms
- Value of all homes: $7.6 billion
- Population: 45,531
10. Casper, WY
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 25 storms
- Value of all homes: $5.2 billion
- Population: 58,631
9. Cheyenne, WY
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 215 storms
- Value of all homes: $6.0 billion
- Population: 64,795
8. Loveland, CO
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 49 storms
- Value of all homes: $9.4 billion
- Population: 76,500
7. Longmont, CO
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 74 storms
- Value of all homes: $13.4 billion
- Population: 98,282
6. Boulder, CO
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 60 storms
- Value of all homes: $23.4 billion
- Population: 106,598
5. Greeley, CO
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 112 storms
- Value of all homes: $8.3 billion
- Population: 107,949
4. Arvada, CO
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 77 storms
- Value of all homes: $21.3 billion
- Population: 123,066
3. Thornton, CO
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 47 storms
- Value of all homes: $16.6 billion
- Population: 141,799
2. Lakewood, CO
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 107 storms
- Value of all homes: $21.0 billion
- Population: 156,149
1. Fort Collins, CO
- Probability of hail event in next 72 hours: 15.0%
- No. hail events, 1950-2024: 203 storms
- Value of all homes: $19.6 billion
- Population: 168,758
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