Hurricane Erin Moves West, Prompting Rip Current Warnings, Beach Hazards Statements in These Vacation Hotspots

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As Hurricane Erin shifts west, some Atlantic Coast cities are starting to feel its impact. Mandatory evacuation orders are in place in the Outer Banks in North Carolina, and the National Weather Service is issuing a series of urgent rip tide warnings, beach hazard statements, and coastal flood warnings to dozens of beach communities.

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While Hurricane Erin may not make landfall on the contiguous U.S., the storm is forecast to have strong impacts along the Atlantic coastline. The NWS has issued rip tide warnings in 41 counties, representing 21.0 million Americans. Meanwhile, there are high surf advisories in 64 counties, and coastal flood warnings in 11 countries. While the worst of the storm will occur near North Carolina, beach towns as far north as Long Island have a chance of experiencing tropical storm force winds, threatening lives and hundreds of millions of dollars in beachfront real estate. A closer look at the data reveals the vacation hotspots where Hurricane Erin could deliver tropical storm force winds this week.

To determine the vacation hotspots where Hurricane Erin could deliver tropical storm force winds this week, Climate Crisis 247 reviewed hurricane forecast data from the NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. Cities were ranked based on the average probability of experiencing tropical storm force winds – 39 miles per hour or greater – in the next 120 hours. Point-level data on wind speed probability were aggregated to the city level using zonal statistics in QGIS. Only cities where at least 10% of housing units are vacant for seasonal or recreational use – a proxy for vacation activity – were considered. Supplemental data on population and home value are from the U.S. Census Bureau.