New Real-Time Data Shows the Counties Where a New Wildfire Is Most Likely to Occur

By Evan Comen • October 2, 2025

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While the worst of wildfire season is over, there is still a non-zero chance of a large blaze occurring in much of the country. From the Florida Gulf Coast to Eastern Washington, pockets of dry vegetation, high winds, and stubborn drought are elevating fire risk far above national averages.

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The U.S. Geological Survey measures the probability of a new wildfire occurring across the country, based on historical fire activity, vegetation type, weather conditions, and topography. The latest data shows that the areas with the greatest risk are concentrated in Western states like California, Oregon and Idaho, while some Gulf counties in Louisiana and Florida are also relatively high risk. A closer look at the data reveals the counties with the greatest risk of fire right now.

To identify the counties with the greatest fire risk right now, Climate Crisis 247 reviewed data on wildland large fire probability from the U.S. Geological Survey. Counties were ranked based on the maximum probability of a new 500+ acre fire occurring within their boundaries as of October 1, 2025. Supplemental data on home value and population are from the U.S. Census Bureau.

25. Yolo County, CA

Photo by taylor Annis on Unsplash

Maximum chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 4.2 in one million
Average chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 1.8 in one million
Total value of occupied housing units: $28.0 billion
Total population: 217,782
County seat: Woodland

24. Benewah County, ID

Photo by Kevin Bidwell on Pexels

Maximum chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 4.2 in one million
Average chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 1.0 in one million
Total value of occupied housing units: $982.9 million
Total population: 9,913
County seat: St. Maries

23. Lafourche Parish, LA

Photo by Joshua J. Cotten on Unsplash

Maximum chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 4.2 in one million
Average chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 0.7 in one million
Total value of occupied housing units: $6.4 billion
Total population: 96,670
County seat: Thibodaux

22. Whitman County, WA

Photo by David Wirzba on Unsplash

Maximum chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 4.2 in one million
Average chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 2.7 in one million
Total value of occupied housing units: $3.1 billion
Total population: 47,042
County seat: Colfax

21. Colusa County, CA

Photo by Alex Ovs on Unsplash

Maximum chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 4.2 in one million
Average chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 2.0 in one million
Total value of occupied housing units: $2.1 billion
Total population: 21,895
County seat: Colusa

20. Sarasota County, FL

Photo by Jeffrey Eisen on Unsplash

Maximum chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 4.3 in one million
Average chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 0.8 in one million
Total value of occupied housing units: $83.2 billion
Total population: 449,011
County seat: Sarasota

19. Latah County, ID

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Maximum chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 4.3 in one million
Average chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 1.0 in one million
Total value of occupied housing units: $3.9 billion
Total population: 40,315
County seat: Moscow

18. Mendocino County, CA

Photo by Mick Haupt on Unsplash

Maximum chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 4.3 in one million
Average chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 0.8 in one million
Total value of occupied housing units: $12.2 billion
Total population: 90,709
County seat: Ukiah

17. Hillsborough County, FL

Photo by Goji on Unsplash

Maximum chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 4.4 in one million
Average chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 0.8 in one million
Total value of occupied housing units: $143.3 billion
Total population: 1,489,634
County seat: Tampa

16. Trinity County, CA

Photo by Simon Hermans on Unsplash

Maximum chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 4.4 in one million
Average chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 1.1 in one million
Total value of occupied housing units: $2.8 billion
Total population: 15,886
County seat: Weaverville

15. Tehama County, CA

Photo by Tim Mossholder on Pexels

Maximum chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 4.4 in one million
Average chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 2.0 in one million
Total value of occupied housing units: $5.8 billion
Total population: 65,520
County seat: Red Bluff

14. Adams County, ID

Photo by Kevin Fitzgerald on Unsplash

Maximum chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 4.4 in one million
Average chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 1.1 in one million
Total value of occupied housing units: $605.3 million
Total population: 4,599
County seat: Council

13. Clearwater County, ID

Photo by Paul Crook on Unsplash

Maximum chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 4.5 in one million
Average chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 0.7 in one million
Total value of occupied housing units: $908.4 million
Total population: 8,921
County seat: Orofino

12. Humboldt County, CA

Photo by Richard Young on Unsplash

Maximum chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 4.5 in one million
Average chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 0.6 in one million
Total value of occupied housing units: $14.9 billion
Total population: 135,418
County seat: Eureka

11. Asotin County, WA

Photo by mali maeder on Pexels

Maximum chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 4.6 in one million
Average chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 2.2 in one million
Total value of occupied housing units: $2.3 billion
Total population: 22,424
County seat: Asotin

10. Polk County, FL

Photo by Osmany Mederos on Pexels

Maximum chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 4.6 in one million
Average chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 0.6 in one million
Total value of occupied housing units: $52.4 billion
Total population: 760,961
County seat: Bartow

9. Siskiyou County, CA

Photo by Tom Shamberger on Unsplash

Maximum chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 4.6 in one million
Average chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 0.9 in one million
Total value of occupied housing units: $4.7 billion
Total population: 43,834
County seat: Yreka

8. Kern County, CA

Photo by Fabio Sasso on Unsplash

Maximum chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 4.6 in one million
Average chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 1.3 in one million
Total value of occupied housing units: $59.2 billion
Total population: 910,433
County seat: Bakersfield

7. Idaho County, ID

Photo by David Wirzba on Unsplash

Maximum chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 4.6 in one million
Average chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 1.1 in one million
Total value of occupied housing units: $1.8 billion
Total population: 17,120
County seat: Grangeville

6. Nez Perce County, ID

Photo by Anthony Camerlo on Unsplash

Maximum chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 4.7 in one million
Average chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 1.8 in one million
Total value of occupied housing units: $4.1 billion
Total population: 42,477
County seat: Lewiston

5. Manatee County, FL

Photo by Ryan Thorpe on Unsplash

Maximum chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 4.7 in one million
Average chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 0.8 in one million
Total value of occupied housing units: $54.9 billion
Total population: 416,020
County seat: Bradenton

4. Lewis County, ID

Photo by gaspar zaldo on Unsplash

Maximum chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 5.0 in one million
Average chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 1.7 in one million
Total value of occupied housing units: $296.2 million
Total population: 3,649
County seat: Nezperce

3. Pinellas County, FL

Photo by Juliana Uribbe on Unsplash

Maximum chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 5.1 in one million
Average chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 1.6 in one million
Total value of occupied housing units: $121.7 billion
Total population: 960,565
County seat: Clearwater

2. Plaquemines Parish, LA

Photo by Joshua J. Cotten on Unsplash

Maximum chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 5.2 in one million
Average chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 1.2 in one million
Total value of occupied housing units: $1.8 billion
Total population: 23,070
County seat: Pointe a la Hache

1. Charlotte County, FL

Photo by Drew Coffman on Unsplash

Maximum chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 5.7 in one million
Average chance of new 500+ acre fire forming: 0.9 in one million
Total value of occupied housing units: $26.4 billion
Total population: 195,083
County seat: Punta Gorda