Reno Will Officially Be a Desert By 2060, and Other Cities With Shifting Biomes

By Evan Comen  •  July 1, 2025
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In a recent study published in the journal PeerJ, researchers from the Open Earth Monitor Cyberinfrastructure project used high resolution data and machine learning to map how natural vegetation zones – or biomes – could shift by 2080 under different climate scenarios.

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Researchers found that the composition of biomes in the United States will change considerably over the next several decades. The central U.S. will become hotter and drier, with the cool mixed forests that characterize states like Minnesota and Wisconsin giving way to the dry, grassy steppe biomes. The steppe biome will expand the most, while biomes like cool evergreen needleleaf forest and temperate deciduous broadleaf forest will shrink considerably.

Many of the country’s largest population hubs will experience complete biome shifts by the end of the century, including Reno, Los Angeles, and Seattle. A closer look at the data reveals the cities projected to undergo the greatest biome transformations in the next 50 years.

To determine the cities with changing biomes, Climate Crisis 247 reviewed spatial data from the April 2023 paper Current and future global distribution of potential biomes under climate change scenarios, published in PeerJ. Cities were ranked based on the degree of change from dominant biome type from a 1979-2013 baseline to a forecasted 2061-2080 scenario, based on the BIOME 6000 classification scheme. Forecast changes to biome landscape classification are based on RCP 8.5 scenario, or high emissions. Analysis was done in QGIS using raster data and zonal statistics. Only cities with at least 250,000 residents were considered.

25. San Francisco, CA

Photo by Joshua Sortino on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Xerophytic woods/scrub
  • Current population: 851,036
 

24. Aurora, CO

Photo by Acton Crawford on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Temperate evergreen needleleaf open woodland
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
  • Current population: 387,349
 

23. Fresno, CA

Photo by Kellen Riggin on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Temperate evergreen needleleaf open woodland
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
  • Current population: 541,528
 

22. Denver, CO

Photo by Payson Wick on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Temperate evergreen needleleaf open woodland
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
  • Current population: 710,800
 

21. Anchorage, AK

Photo by Simon Hurry on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Low and high shrub tundra
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Cool evergreen needleleaf forest
  • Current population: 290,674
 

20. Miami, FL

Photo by Shawn Henley on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Temperate evergreen needleleaf open woodland
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest
  • Current population: 443,665
 

19. Reno, NV

Photo by Daniel Akre on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Temperate evergreen needleleaf open woodland
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Desert
  • Current population: 265,196
 

18. Bakersfield, CA

Photo by Fabio Sasso on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Temperate evergreen needleleaf open woodland
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Desert
  • Current population: 404,321
 

17. Tulsa, OK

Photo by Sam Coin on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Temperate deciduous broadleaf forest
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest
  • Current population: 411,938
 

16. Virginia Beach, VA

Photo by Daniel Halseth on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Temperate deciduous broadleaf forest
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest
  • Current population: 457,900
 

15. Louisville/Jefferson County, KY

Photo by Joshua Michaels on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Temperate deciduous broadleaf forest
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest
  • Current population: 629,176
 

14. Nashville-Davidson, TN

Photo by Tanner Boriack on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Temperate deciduous broadleaf forest
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest
  • Current population: 684,103
 

13. Buffalo, NY

Photo by Kathleen Culbertson on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Cool mixed forest
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Temperate deciduous broadleaf forest
  • Current population: 276,688
 

12. Corpus Christi, TX

Photo by Trac Vu on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
  • Current population: 317,804
 

11. Cleveland, OH

Photo by Leo_Visions on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Cool mixed forest
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Temperate deciduous broadleaf forest
  • Current population: 370,365
 

10. Boston, MA

Photo by jacob Licht on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Cool mixed forest
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Temperate deciduous broadleaf forest
  • Current population: 665,945
 

9. San Antonio, TX

Photo by Matthew LeJune on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Steppe
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest
  • Current population: 1,445,662
 

8. Irvine, CA

Photo by Daniel Sinoca on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Xerophytic woods/scrub
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
  • Current population: 304,527
 

7. Santa Ana, CA

Photo by Simon Maage on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Xerophytic woods/scrub
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
  • Current population: 311,379
 

6. Anaheim, CA

Photo by James Hartono on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Xerophytic woods/scrub
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
  • Current population: 347,111
 

5. Long Beach, CA

Photo by Brian McCall on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Xerophytic woods/scrub
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
  • Current population: 462,293
 

4. Sacramento, CA

Photo by Josh Hild on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Xerophytic woods/scrub
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
  • Current population: 523,600
 

3. Los Angeles, CA

Photo by Venti Views on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Xerophytic woods/scrub
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
  • Current population: 3,881,041
 

2. Portland, OR

Photo by Thien Vu on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Cool evergreen needleleaf forest
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest
  • Current population: 646,101
 

1. Seattle, WA

Photo by Zhifei Zhou on Unsplash

  • Current biome classification: Cool evergreen needleleaf forest
  • Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest
  • Current population: 734,603
 

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