These Florida Cities Will Get A Ton Of Rain on July 4
https://climate-crisis-247-bucket.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/07213704/Forecast-precipitation-totals-July-4th-2025-150x150.pngWhile Americans across the country are preparing for barbecues and fireworks this Fourth of July, a possible subtropical depression is threatening to dampen outdoor celebrations in Florida. A slow-moving storm system lingering off the Atlantic coast is funneling tropical moisture into the state, setting the stage for steady downpours, muggy conditions, and the possibility of localized flooding.
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Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are watching the storm closely, assigning the system a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next seven days. While it’s not expected to strengthen rapidly, the system’s interaction with warm Gulf waters is enhancing rainfall totals along Florida’s Gulf Coast.
A handful of cities could see more than an inch of rain this Independence Day, with the heaviest rainfall expected in Central Florida and the Gulf Coast. A closer look at the data reveals the Florida cities forecast to receive the most rain this Fourth of July.
To identify the cities where it will rain the most on July 4th, Climate Crisis 247 analyzed one-day quantitative precipitation forecasts from NOAA’s National Digital Forecast Database. Cities were ranked based on forecast cumulative rainfall for July 4, 2025. Only cities within the boundaries of the low pressure system being tracked by the National Hurricane Center were considered. Cities with fewer than 25,000 residents were excluded. Population data is from the U.S. Census Bureau.
11. Valrico, FL
- Forecast cumulative rainfall for July 4th, 2025: 1.00 inches
- Forecast average temperature for July 4th, 2025: 80.5°F
- Chance of cyclone formation in next 7 days: 30%
- Population: 38,594
10. Riverview, FL
- Forecast cumulative rainfall for July 4th, 2025: 1.00 inches
- Forecast average temperature for July 4th, 2025: 80.8°F
- Chance of cyclone formation in next 7 days: 30%
- Population: 102,467
9. Pinellas Park, FL
- Forecast cumulative rainfall for July 4th, 2025: 1.00 inches
- Forecast average temperature for July 4th, 2025: 82.4°F
- Chance of cyclone formation in next 7 days: 30%
- Population: 53,352
8. Apollo Beach, FL
- Forecast cumulative rainfall for July 4th, 2025: 1.01 inches
- Forecast average temperature for July 4th, 2025: 81.0°F
- Chance of cyclone formation in next 7 days: 30%
- Population: 26,444
7. Sun City Center, FL
- Forecast cumulative rainfall for July 4th, 2025: 1.01 inches
- Forecast average temperature for July 4th, 2025: 81.2°F
- Chance of cyclone formation in next 7 days: 30%
- Population: 29,290
6. St. Petersburg, FL
- Forecast cumulative rainfall for July 4th, 2025: 1.02 inches
- Forecast average temperature for July 4th, 2025: 82.3°F
- Chance of cyclone formation in next 7 days: 30%
- Population: 259,343
5. South Bradenton, FL
- Forecast cumulative rainfall for July 4th, 2025: 1.04 inches
- Forecast average temperature for July 4th, 2025: 82.5°F
- Chance of cyclone formation in next 7 days: 30%
- Population: 25,471
4. Bradenton, FL
- Forecast cumulative rainfall for July 4th, 2025: 1.05 inches
- Forecast average temperature for July 4th, 2025: 82.6°F
- Chance of cyclone formation in next 7 days: 30%
- Population: 55,795
3. Largo, FL
- Forecast cumulative rainfall for July 4th, 2025: 1.06 inches
- Forecast average temperature for July 4th, 2025: 81.8°F
- Chance of cyclone formation in next 7 days: 30%
- Population: 82,541
2. Fish Hawk, FL
- Forecast cumulative rainfall for July 4th, 2025: 1.13 inches
- Forecast average temperature for July 4th, 2025: 80.6°F
- Chance of cyclone formation in next 7 days: 30%
- Population: 25,179
1. Venice, FL
- Forecast cumulative rainfall for July 4th, 2025: 1.13 inches
- Forecast average temperature for July 4th, 2025: 81.3°F
- Chance of cyclone formation in next 7 days: 30%
- Population: 25,710
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