Where Heat Risk Will Be Worst This Weekend

By Evan Comen • August 8, 2025

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This weekend, a broad ridge of high pressure is moving west to east across the country, leading to increased daytime temperatures, reduced overnight cooling, and elevated heat risk in dozens of major cities.

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In an effort to model heat risk, the National Weather Service publishes a daily HeatRisk forecast, a composite metric measuring temperatures, humidity, duration of heat, and how unusual heat is for the time of year in a given geography. NWS guidance shows that heat risk will peak in the Southwest on Friday, then dissipate in a northeasterly direction over the following few days. Large swaths of the Midwest will experience major heat risk, a level of heat with potential health impacts for anyone without adequate cooling or hydration. A closer look at the data reveals the cities with the greatest heat risk this weekend.

To determine the cities with the highest heat risk this weekend, Climate Crisis 247 reviewed data on heat risk from the NOAA’s National Weather Service. Cities were ranked based on average NWS HeatRisk score for the period August 8 to 10, 2025. Supplemental data on forecast temperature maximums are from the NOAA’s National Digital Forecast Database. Only cities with at least 75,000 residents were considered. Population data is from the U.S. Census Bureau.

25. Mesa, AZ

Photo by Wallace Bentt on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, August 8, 2025: 2.93/4 (high of 115.8°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 9, 2025: 2.52/4 (high of 111.4°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 10, 2025: 2.53/4 (high of 109.0°F)
Total population: 503,390

24. Lansing, MI

Photo by ethan on Pexels

NWS HeatRisk score, August 8, 2025: 2.00/4 (high of 88.0°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 9, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 86.6°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 10, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 90.9°F)
Total population: 112,986

23. Rochester Hills, MI

Photo by Kyle E on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, August 8, 2025: 2.00/4 (high of 85.7°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 9, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 86.1°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 10, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 90.8°F)
Total population: 76,041

22. South Bend, IN

Photo by Tina Nord on Pexels

NWS HeatRisk score, August 8, 2025: 2.00/4 (high of 87.0°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 9, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 87.4°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 10, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 90.6°F)
Total population: 103,084

21. Madison, WI

Photo by Pixabay on Pexels

NWS HeatRisk score, August 8, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 85.6°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 9, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 88.9°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 10, 2025: 2.00/4 (high of 88.7°F)
Total population: 268,516

20. Flint, MI

Photo by Aaron Burden on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, August 8, 2025: 2.00/4 (high of 86.9°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 9, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 85.9°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 10, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 92.0°F)
Total population: 81,863

19. Goodyear, AZ

Photo by Stephen Crane on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, August 8, 2025: 2.85/4 (high of 116.9°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 9, 2025: 2.65/4 (high of 112.1°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 10, 2025: 2.59/4 (high of 110.2°F)
Total population: 97,542

18. Joliet, IL

Photo by Ray Graciano on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, August 8, 2025: 2.12/4 (high of 89.0°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 9, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 90.0°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 10, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 92.9°F)
Total population: 150,221

17. Fort Smith, AR

Photo by Shea B on Pexels

NWS HeatRisk score, August 8, 2025: 2.69/4 (high of 97.9°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 9, 2025: 2.77/4 (high of 99.2°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 10, 2025: 2.67/4 (high of 97.7°F)
Total population: 89,315

16. El Paso, TX

Photo by Kevin Vega on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, August 8, 2025: 2.83/4 (high of 100.6°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 9, 2025: 3.03/4 (high of 100.3°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 10, 2025: 2.33/4 (high of 99.9°F)
Total population: 677,181

15. Green Bay, WI

Photo by Sunil GC on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, August 8, 2025: 2.68/4 (high of 83.9°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 9, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 87.4°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 10, 2025: 2.53/4 (high of 89.9°F)
Total population: 106,846

14. Kenosha, WI

Photo by Clay Lindner on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, August 8, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 87.0°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 9, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 88.1°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 10, 2025: 2.24/4 (high of 90.7°F)
Total population: 99,493

13. Wyoming, MI

Photo by Komsan Jitarmat on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, August 8, 2025: 2.50/4 (high of 90.0°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 9, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 87.4°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 10, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 93.7°F)
Total population: 76,732

12. Naperville, IL

Photo by Josh Willink on Pexels

NWS HeatRisk score, August 8, 2025: 2.66/4 (high of 89.2°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 9, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 90.1°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 10, 2025: 2.97/4 (high of 93.1°F)
Total population: 149,089

11. Hammond, IN

Photo by CHUTTERSNAP on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, August 8, 2025: 2.67/4 (high of 88.9°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 9, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 90.0°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 10, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 94.0°F)
Total population: 77,390

10. Evanston, IL

Photo by Adwait Ganguly on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, August 8, 2025: 2.67/4 (high of 85.0°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 9, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 89.5°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 10, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 93.5°F)
Total population: 77,181

9. Grand Rapids, MI

Photo by Ad Telic on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, August 8, 2025: 2.85/4 (high of 90.1°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 9, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 87.4°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 10, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 93.4°F)
Total population: 198,096

8. Waukegan, IL

Photo by Ant Rozetsky on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, August 8, 2025: 2.95/4 (high of 84.9°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 9, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 87.6°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 10, 2025: 2.95/4 (high of 92.4°F)
Total population: 89,435

7. Aurora, IL

Photo by Janice Rodriguez on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, August 8, 2025: 2.94/4 (high of 89.0°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 9, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 90.0°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 10, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 93.4°F)
Total population: 181,405

6. Chicago, IL

Photo by Sawyer Bengtson on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, August 8, 2025: 2.98/4 (high of 88.8°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 9, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 90.8°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 10, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 93.9°F)
Total population: 2,721,914

5. Peoria, IL

Photo by Darrien Staton on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, August 8, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 91.5°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 9, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 92.5°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 10, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 92.0°F)
Total population: 113,054

4. Cicero, IL

Photo by Diego PH on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, August 8, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 90.0°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 9, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 90.9°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 10, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 94.0°F)
Total population: 84,189

3. Arlington Heights, IL

Photo by Vincent Yuan @USA on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, August 8, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 90.0°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 9, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 90.7°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 10, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 94.1°F)
Total population: 76,794

2. Schaumburg, IL

Photo by Iwona Banasik on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, August 8, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 90.0°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 9, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 90.2°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 10, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 94.0°F)
Total population: 77,571

1. Tempe, AZ

Photo by Sid Siv on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, August 8, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 116.0°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 9, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 111.9°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, August 10, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 108.9°F)
Total population: 181,005

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