California’s Economy is Directly in Climate Change’s Crosshairs

By Sam Stebbins  •  February 20, 2026
cars on road between high rise buildings during daytime
Photo by Lala Miklós on Unsplash

Few states have been more exposed to the worst effects of climate change as California. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, California was hit by 46 weather or climate events that caused at least $1 billion in damage between 1980 and 2024. But the most destructive natural disaster in recent California history was the Los Angeles Wildfire of 2025. 

The Palisades and Eaton Fires broke out in the first week of January last year. By the time they were contained at the end of the month, they had consumed tens of thousands of acres across Los Angeles County, destroyed over 16,200 homes and businesses, and killed 31 people. Total damage from the blaze is estimated to have exceeded $61 billion, adjusted for inflation, making it the most destructive wildfire in the U.S. since at least 1980. 

The threat wildfires pose to California will not go away anytime soon – and the start of the 2026 wildfire season is only months away. But in the coming decades, the march of climate change will expose parts of California to a new set of dangers: flooding and sea-level rise. 

According to the U.S. Interagency Task Force on Sea Level Change, the Pacific Ocean is projected to rise by anywhere from 4 to 8 inches along the West Coast of the United States by the year 2050. Even if pledged commitments to curbing climate change are met, sea-levels are projected to continue to rise through the end of the 21st century, threatening major population centers that serve as the lifeblood of California’s more than $4 trillion economy. 

Using data from Climate Central, Climate Crisis 247 identified projected sea level rise in the largest economies along the California coast. We reviewed data on gross domestic product in 2024 for each of the 58 counties in California, and ranked the 10 coastal counties with the largest economies. For each of those 10 counties, we listed predicted sea-level rise by the year 2050, 2100, and 2150, as well as the land area and number of people expected to be at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050. All projections in this story are based on models that assume pledged commitments to curbing climate change are met, and as a result, they may be underestimated. Supplemental data on population are five-year estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2023 American Community Survey, and GDP data is from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Counties are listed in ascending order based on GDP. 

With a combined GDP of over $3 trillion, the 10 counties on this list account for roughly three-quarters of the California economy. In these same areas, coastal sea levels are projected to rise more than 6 inches by 2050, and nearly 3 feet by 2150. 

10. Santa Barbara County, California

  • Projected sea level rise by year: +0.56 ft. by 2050, +1.6 ft. by 2100, +2.6 ft. by 2150
  • Est. land area at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 2,000 acres at minimum
  • Est. population at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 30 socially vulnerable people at minimum
  • County GDP in 2024: $41.4 billion
  • Total county population: 443,975
  • Largest city in county: Santa Maria, California

9. Ventura County, California

  • Projected sea level rise by year: +0.59 ft. by 2050, +1.6 ft. by 2100, +2.7 ft. by 2150
  • Est. land area at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 1,500 acres at minimum
  • Est. population at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 120 people at minimum
  • County GDP in 2024: $69.6 billion
  • Total county population: 838,259
  • Largest city in county: Oxnard, California
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Photo by Tyler Casey on Unsplash

8. Contra Costa County, California

  • Projected sea level rise by year: +0.62 ft. by 2050, +1.7 ft. by 2100, +2.7 ft. by 2150
  • Est. land area at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 8,600 acres at minimum
  • Est. population at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 720 people at minimum
  • County GDP in 2024: $96.6 billion
  • Total county population: 1,161,458
  • Largest city in county: Concord, California

7. Alameda County, California

  • Projected sea level rise by year: +0.59 ft. by 2050, +1.6 ft. by 2100, +2.7 ft. by 2150
  • Est. land area at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 13,000 acres at minimum
  • Est. population at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 1,700 people at minimum
  • County GDP in 2024: $182.5 billion
  • Total county population: 1,651,949
  • Largest city in county: Oakland, California

6. San Mateo County, California

  • Projected sea level rise by year: +0.66 ft. by 2050, +1.7 ft. by 2100, +2.9 ft. by 2150
  • Est. land area at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 5,600 acres at minimum
  • Est. population at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 3,800 people at minimum
  • County GDP in 2024: $217.0 billion
  • Total county population: 745,100
  • Largest city in county: Daly City, California

5. San Francisco County, California

  • Projected sea level rise by year: +0.62 ft. by 2050, +1.7 ft. by 2100, +2.9 ft. by 2150
  • Est. land area at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 270 acres at minimum
  • Est. population at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 800 socially vulnerable people at minimum
  • County GDP in 2024: $268.3 billion
  • Total county population: 836,321
  • Largest city in county: San Francisco, California

4. San Diego County, California

  • Projected sea level rise by year: +0.62 ft. by 2050, +1.6 ft. by 2100, +2.7 ft. by 2150
  • Est. land area at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 2,200 acres at minimum
  • Est. population at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 1,500 people at minimum
  • County GDP in 2024: $331.9 billion
  • Total county population: 3,282,782
  • Largest city in county: San Diego, California

3. Orange County, California

  • Projected sea level rise by year: +0.59 ft. by 2050, +1.6 ft. by 2100, +2.7 ft. by 2150
  • Est. land area at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 4,400 acres at minimum
  • Est. population at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 18,000 people at minimum
  • County GDP in 2024: $351.8 billion
  • Total county population: 3,164,063
  • Largest city in county: Anaheim, California

2. Santa Clara County, California

  • Projected sea level rise by year: +0.59 ft. by 2050, +1.6 ft. by 2100, +2.6 ft. by 2150
  • Est. land area at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 6,500 acres at minimum
  • Est. population at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 4,800 people at minimum
  • County GDP in 2024: $438.5 billion
  • Total county population: 1,903,297
  • Largest city in county: San Jose, California

1. Los Angeles County, California

  • Projected sea level rise by year: +0.56 ft. by 2050, +1.5 ft. by 2100, +2.6 ft. by 2150
  • Est. land area at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 1,900 acres at minimum
  • Est. population at high-risk of annual flooding by 2050: 2,000 people at minimum
  • County GDP in 2024: $1.0 trillion
  • Total county population: 9,848,406
  • Largest city in county: Los Angeles, California

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