Climate Change, Melting Permafrost Heating Up Geopolitical Tensions in the Arctic

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Since the end of the Cold War, the frozen, hard-to-reach landscape of the Arctic has been a site of relative harmony amongst the world’s major superpowers. The region’s remote and inaccessible nature has long contributed to a spirit of “Arctic exceptionalism” in the global race for natural resources; a sort of unspoken, circumpolar détente between the United States and Russia that has long enabled scientific research and conservation efforts in the area.

But in recent years, global warming has accelerated the thawing of vast stretches of Arctic permafrost and sea ice, creating a wealth of newly available resources in a region where territorial claims can be murky and international governance relatively crude. In response to the changing landscape, countries with territory in the Arctic – and even those without, like China – have ramped up military and industrial operations in the region, reigniting old geopolitical conflicts and threatening the Arctic’s status as the world’s last unexplored frontier.

The Arctic Circle is delineated by a parallel circle of latitude at about 66.5°N. The polar circle covers about 8.1 million square miles, and transects the United States, Canada, Iceland, Denmark – via Greenland – Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Russia. While the eight abutting countries have participated in the Arctic Council since its formation in 1996, the intergovernmental organization suspended its operations in 2022 in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia has the strongest military presence in the region by far, with more than triple the number of Arctic military bases than all of NATO. According to the latest data from marine transport firm Aker Arctic, Russia owns 85 icebreaking ships, with 24 more on order or under construction, far outnumbering the current 16-ship U.S. fleet.

Recent data tracked by the Center for Strategic and International Studies also shows increasing Arctic military activity by Russia. While Russia has withdrawn a bulk of its military personnel from its Arctic bases as reinforcements in its war in Ukraine, the Norwegian newspaper The Barents Observer has already cataloged eight Russian military exercises in the Arctic this year. Reported instances include submarines firing on simulated enemy fleets, air defense drills, and countermeasures against enemy motorboats. In contrast, the U.S. conducted only two military exercises in the Arctic this year.

The Arctic is heating up. While the volume of Arctic sea ice ebbs and flows throughout the year, the minimum summer sea ice extent reaches new lows each year, shrinking at an average rate of 12.2% per decade. Each thawed floe is another potential shipping lane or drilling site, making competition in the region fierce and potentially precursory to geopolitical tensions that could have consequences far beyond the North Pole. And while the U.S. needs to reinforce its strategic presence in the area, the path to increased Arctic capabilities is unclear.