Coffee Climate-Driven Prices Up 21%

Coffee prices, driven by climate change, are up 21% this year. That is before tariffs kick in. This shows how climate disasters, married with tariffs, can make a commodity almost unaffordable. 

The 21% CPI increase supported by private sector data brings coffee prices to $8.87 a pound. Brazil, the world’s largest producer, has been hit by drought and heat. In the last week, those climate-related problems have been joined by frost. Royal Coffee reports, “While current reports suggest limited frost damage, analysts are noting that even in areas where frost did not materialize, the exposure of flower buds to very low temperatures could reduce fruit set and lower yields, adding potential pressure to Brazil’s supply outlook.” 

These struggles are about to be joined by tariffs as high as 50%. On paper, that could take the price of a pound of coffee to over $14.

Vietnam Supply

The problem in Vietnam, another of the world’s largest producers, is not entirely different. The 2024-2025 crop was damaged by a drought, and, in some cases, storms later in the year. 

Tariffs on Vietnamese imports are 20%. Once again, this will drive the price of coffee close to $14.

Americans will not stop drinking coffee. What may happen is that it will be part of food inflation, which is one part of the CPI that is growing fastest. It is, therefore, a contributor to inflation overall.