Countries Where Climate Change Will Hit The Economy The Hardest

The United Nations Environment Programme recently announced that the goal to limit global warming to within 1.5°C of preindustrial levels is no longer within reach. The 1.5°C target, established in the 2015 Paris Agreement, is based on a threshold which, if crossed, greatly increases the likelihood pushing global ecosystems beyond an irreversible tipping point. 

The UNEP announcement stands as a grim milestone in the climate era. On our current trajectory, our planet faces significant ecological disruption including species extinction, glacial melt, sea level rise, deforestation, drought, and flooding—all of which will contribute to meaningful economic losses. 

If the global transition to clean energy does not meaningfully accelerate in the near future, climate change could cut into the world’s total annual economic output by as much as 9% by the end of the century, according to projections from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Climate change will not impact all countries equally, however, and the bulk of lost economic productivity will be shouldered by some of the world’s wealthiest, and most highly exposed countries. 

Using data from the OECD, Climate Crisis 247 identified the national economies expected to be hit hardest by climate change. We ranked all countries with available data on the dollar value of the forecasted impact climate change will have on GDP by the year 2100. Monetary impacts were calculated using GDP figures for 2025, the latest year of available data from the World Bank. Estimates assume a median climate-related damage curve. 

 10. France

• Climate change’s impact on GDP by 2030 (on current trajectory): -$34.8 billion in 2025 dollars (-1.0%)
• Climate change’s impact on GDP by 2050 (on current trajectory): -$59.2 billion in 2025 dollars (-1.8%)
• Climate change’s impact on GDP by 2100 (on current trajectory): -$118.9 billion in 2025 dollars (-3.5%)
• Gross domestic product in 2025: $3.4 trillion

 9. United Kingdom

• Climate change’s impact on GDP by 2030 (on current trajectory): -$37.3 billion in 2025 dollars (-0.9%)
• Climate change’s impact on GDP by 2050 (on current trajectory): -$63.6 billion in 2025 dollars (-1.6%)
• Climate change’s impact on GDP by 2100 (on current trajectory): -$127.8 billion in 2025 dollars (-3.2%)
• Gross domestic product in 2025: $4.0 trillion

 8. Germany

• Climate change’s impact on GDP by 2030 (on current trajectory): -$39.4 billion in 2025 dollars (-0.8%)
• Climate change’s impact on GDP by 2050 (on current trajectory): -$67.2 billion in 2025 dollars (-1.3%)
• Climate change’s impact on GDP by 2100 (on current trajectory): -$134.8 billion in 2025 dollars (-2.7%)
• Gross domestic product in 2025: $5.1 trillion

 7. Mexico

• Climate change’s impact on GDP by 2030 (on current trajectory): -$44.4 billion in 2025 dollars (-2.4%)
• Climate change’s impact on GDP by 2050 (on current trajectory): -$75.7 billion in 2025 dollars (-4.1%)
• Climate change’s impact on GDP by 2100 (on current trajectory): -$151.9 billion in 2025 dollars (-8.3%)
• Gross domestic product in 2025: $1.8 trillion

 6. Indonesia

• Climate change’s impact on GDP by 2030 (on current trajectory): -$51.1 billion in 2025 dollars (-3.5%)
• Climate change’s impact on GDP by 2050 (on current trajectory): -$87.1 billion in 2025 dollars (-6.0%)
• Climate change’s impact on GDP by 2100 (on current trajectory): -$174.7 billion in 2025 dollars (-12.1%)
• Gross domestic product in 2025: $1.4 trillion

 5. Japan

• Climate change’s impact on GDP by 2030 (on current trajectory): -$61.4 billion in 2025 dollars (-1.4%)
• Climate change’s impact on GDP by 2050 (on current trajectory): -$104.7 billion in 2025 dollars (-2.4%)
• Climate change’s impact on GDP by 2100 (on current trajectory): -$210.1 billion in 2025 dollars (-4.7%)
• Gross domestic product in 2025: $4.4 trillion

 4. Brazil

• Climate change’s impact on GDP by 2030 (on current trajectory): -$65.9 billion in 2025 dollars (-2.9%)
• Climate change’s impact on GDP by 2050 (on current trajectory): -$112.4 billion in 2025 dollars (-4.9%)
• Climate change’s impact on GDP by 2100 (on current trajectory): -$225.5 billion in 2025 dollars (-9.9%)
• Gross domestic product in 2025: $2.3 trillion

 3. India

• Climate change’s impact on GDP by 2030 (on current trajectory): -$148.4 billion in 2025 dollars (-3.8%)
• Climate change’s impact on GDP by 2050 (on current trajectory): -$253.0 billion in 2025 dollars (-6.4%)
• Climate change’s impact on GDP by 2100 (on current trajectory): -$507.8 billion in 2025 dollars (-12.8%)
• Gross domestic product in 2025: $4.0 trillion

 2. United States

• Climate change’s impact on GDP by 2030 (on current trajectory): -$360.6 billion in 2025 dollars (-1.2%)
• Climate change’s impact on GDP by 2050 (on current trajectory): -$614.8 billion in 2025 dollars (-2.0%)
• Climate change’s impact on GDP by 2100 (on current trajectory): -$1.2 trillion in 2025 dollars (-4.0%)
• Gross domestic product in 2025: $30.8 trillion

 1. China

• Climate change’s impact on GDP by 2030 (on current trajectory): -$395.2 billion in 2025 dollars (-2.0%)
• Climate change’s impact on GDP by 2050 (on current trajectory): -$673.7 billion in 2025 dollars (-3.5%)
• Climate change’s impact on GDP by 2100 (on current trajectory): -$1.4 trillion in 2025 dollars (-6.9%)
• Gross domestic product in 2025: $19.5 trillion