Mapping the US Counties Where Climate Doubt is Spreading

Denial of the human role in climate change has long been a component – and often a central one – in American politics. As recently as last year, in a speech delivered to the United Nations General Assembly, President Trump said that climate change is “the greatest con job ever perpetrated on the world.” Even though the link between fossil fuel emissions and rising temperatures is well established and widely accepted within the scientific community, a survey conducted by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication found that nearly 30% Americans think that global warming is not primarily due to human activities. Less controversial, however, is that the world is, in fact, warming at a rapid pace. 

According to the World Meteorological Organization, each of the last 11 years rank among the 11 warmest globally since record keeping began. A similar pattern has also emerged in the United States. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, all 10 of the hottest years across the Lower 48 have been in the 21st century – including five of the last six years. Additionally, a recent report from Climate Central, a non-profit research organization, found that in 97% of 243 U.S. cities analyzed, average summer temperatures have measurably increased since 1970. 

Despite the demonstrable trend of rising temperatures, the share of Americans who think that global warming does not impact weather in the U.S. increased slightly from 5.8% in 2018, the earliest year of available YPCCC survey data, to 5.9% in 2025. And in parts of the country – including some of the fastest warming areas – the share of residents who deny global warming’s effect on weather has increased at a far more rapid clip. 

Using survey data from the YPCCC, Climate Crisis 247 identified the counties hit hardest by global warming where denial of the phenomenon is rising fastest. We ranked all U.S. counties with populations of 50,000 or more on the percentage point increase, between 2018 and 2025, in the share of residents who do not think global warming is affecting weather in the United States. Only counties where average summer temperatures rose by at least 1°F between 1970 and 2025, as reported by Climate Central, were considered in this analysis. The YPCCC bears no responsibility for the analyses or interpretations of the data presented here.

10. Imperial County, California

• Change in share of residents who do not think global warming affects weather in the U.S., 2018-2025: +1.0 percentage point (approx. 1,856 more people)
• Share of residents who do not think global warming affects weather in the U.S. by year: 5.7% in 2025; 4.6% in 2018
• Change in average summer temperature, 1970-2025: +3.9°F
• County population: 180,202
• County seat: El Centro

9. Otero County, New Mexico

• Change in share of residents who do not think global warming affects weather in the U.S., 2018-2025: +1.1 percentage points (approx. 723 more people)
• Share of residents who do not think global warming affects weather in the U.S. by year: 7.2% in 2025; 6.1% in 2018
• Change in average summer temperature, 1970-2025: +4.3°F
• County population: 68,816
• County seat: Alamogordo

8. Yuma County, Arizona

• Change in share of residents who do not think global warming affects weather in the U.S., 2018-2025: +1.1 percentage points (approx. 2,287 more people)
• Share of residents who do not think global warming affects weather in the U.S. by year: 6.7% in 2025; 5.6% in 2018
• Change in average summer temperature, 1970-2025: +4.3°F
• County population: 211,741
• County seat: Yuma

7. San Juan County, New Mexico

• Change in share of residents who do not think global warming affects weather in the U.S., 2018-2025: +1.1 percentage points (approx. 1,355 more people)
• Share of residents who do not think global warming affects weather in the U.S. by year: 7.0% in 2025; 5.8% in 2018
• Change in average summer temperature, 1970-2025: +4.1°F
• County population: 120,942
• County seat: Aztec

6. Monmouth County, New Jersey

• Change in share of residents who do not think global warming affects weather in the U.S., 2018-2025: +1.1 percentage points (approx. 7,228 more people)
• Share of residents who do not think global warming affects weather in the U.S. by year: 6.2% in 2025; 5.1% in 2018
• Change in average summer temperature, 1970-2025: +3.8°F
• County population: 645,353
• County seat: Freehold

5. Chaves County, New Mexico

• Change in share of residents who do not think global warming affects weather in the U.S., 2018-2025: +1.2 percentage points (approx. 758 more people)
• Share of residents who do not think global warming affects weather in the U.S. by year: 7.6% in 2025; 6.4% in 2018
• Change in average summer temperature, 1970-2025: +5.1°F
• County population: 64,217
• County seat: Roswell

4. Lea County, New Mexico

• Change in share of residents who do not think global warming affects weather in the U.S., 2018-2025: +1.3 percentage points (approx. 944 more people)
• Share of residents who do not think global warming affects weather in the U.S. by year: 7.9% in 2025; 6.6% in 2018
• Change in average summer temperature, 1970-2025: +5.3°F
• County population: 73,733
• County seat: Hobbs

3. Maverick County, Texas

• Change in share of residents who do not think global warming affects weather in the U.S., 2018-2025: +1.5 percentage points (approx. 877 more people)
• Share of residents who do not think global warming affects weather in the U.S. by year: 5.8% in 2025; 4.3% in 2018
• Change in average summer temperature, 1970-2025: +4.6°F
• County population: 58,082
• County seat: Eagle Pass

2. Box Elder County, Utah

• Change in share of residents who do not think global warming affects weather in the U.S., 2018-2025: +1.6 percentage points (approx. 980 more people)
• Share of residents who do not think global warming affects weather in the U.S. by year: 9.7% in 2025; 8.1% in 2018
• Change in average summer temperature, 1970-2025: +4.2°F
• County population: 61,246
• County seat: Brigham City

1. Starr County, Texas

• Change in share of residents who do not think global warming affects weather in the U.S., 2018-2025: +1.8 percentage points (approx. 1,163 more people)
• Share of residents who do not think global warming affects weather in the U.S. by year: 5.7% in 2025; 3.9% in 2018
• Change in average summer temperature, 1970-2025: +4.0°F
• County population: 66,067
• County seat: Rio Grande City