Will China Rescue or Ruin COP29? The Fortune Cookie has yet to be cracked open

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China is far ahead of the rest of the world in developing renewable energy, but it is also by far the biggest global polluter, prompting observers to wonder whether it will push its green agenda at COP29 or withdraw from debate because it is so reliant on coal to deliver the energy to fuel its rapid growth.

Creating more than 25% of all greenhouse gas emissions, “China is the world’s largest consumer and producer of coal, accounting for more than half of the global total in both categories,” according to Carbon Brief. “China’s coal use is closely linked to its industrialization and includes electricity generation, heat production and industrial feedstock.”

It’s a very mixed bag, with Semafor predicting that, “China will play an outsized role in this year’s COP29 climate conference, its confidence boosted by Beijing’s dominance of the clean tech industry as the West’s attention lies elsewhere.” Meanwhile, it will almost certainly leave third-place polluter India alone.

Some are optimistic about Beijing’s commitment. The Wall Street Journal reports that as the U.S. likely withdraws from the global effort to slow global warming under President-Elect Trump, China will push its global green agenda regardless of its current level of emissions. “China … appears more committed to the agreement than ever,” the Journal reports. “It has vaulted to global leadership in renewable-energy deployment and is spending billions on green-energy projects across the developing world. Poorer nations increasingly look to Beijing for help shifting away from fossil fuels.”

But will it soon back off from its huge coal consumption? With its close-to-the-vest ways, only time will tell.