Why Peak Oil Doesn’t Matter
Peak oil price is just a guess. A look at the forecasts by experts varies so widely that the “guess” statement should be obvious. However, the peak is still constantly discussed, as if there were accurate data. Each data has its separate proof.
The New York Times recently ran an article titled, “Fossil fuels aren’t going anywhere.” Its primary point was that the large oil companies continue to expand. Exxon has just purchased Pioneer Natural Resources for $60 billion. Exxon would not make a gamble if it saw that alternative energies were growing fast enough to damage its core businesses.
The author of the Times article also made an astute observation. Exxon has lots of cash, which it has decided to use in alternative energies only modestly.
Fatih Birol, the head of the IEA, recently wrote in the FT that oil use might peak by the end of this decade. The yardstick for the timing was a set of extraordinarily detailed and expert guesses set out in the IEA World Energy Outlook 2022. The IEA could be right. However, energy companies and consumers refuse to stand still long enough for an accurate snapshot. Even the IEA has changed its targets in the past because data and information moved away from earlier estimates.
The peak oil discussion often begins with the rate of global temperature increase. The IEA’s Net Zero Roadmap shows that to reach net zero emissions by 2050, its analysts write the peak must happen soon, “Global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from the energy sector reached a new record high of 37 billion tonnes (Gt) in 2022, 1% above their pre-pandemic level, but are set to peak this decade.” Although it is an oversimplification, Exxon management has decided not to cooperate to the tune of at least $60 billion.
The global warming debate suffers from at least one problem, even among those most passionate or expert about the need for rapid and radical changes in energy consumption patterns. It is a fact that, although the problem is well-defined, the paths to solutions are covered in a fog of disagreement about metrics.
