EV Industry To Be Shattered By 50% Drop In US Market Share

By Douglas McIntyre  •  September 8, 2025
Vladimir Srajber Pexels

iSeeCars expects that the 8% market share that EVs have of US new car sales will drop by half when the government’s $7,500 tax credit disappears after September 30. “This drop will continue for the foreseeable future, with EV share likely settling in around 4% of new car sales for 2026 through 2028,” the research firm forecasts. 

While there has been an expectation of a drop, the iSeeCars numbers are among the most pessimistic issued recently.

If the drop is at the forecast level, it will decimate Tesla and ruin the plans of a dozen legacy car markets, who among them have spent close to $100 billion to become EV leaders.  Trends in other nations are not expected to be affected at all.

If correct, the forecast also means that the U.S. will once again be a fossil fuel vehicle-driven nation. Many of the predictions about lower carbon emissions will need to be revised, if not abandoned. The broader battery changing station and battery manufacturing industries will also be affected. 

Good Luck For GM And Ford

It may be luck that Ford and GM have started to back away from aggressive EV plans. At the same time, some other huge car companies are charging ahead. BMW just introduced the first cars in a fleet of EVs it plans to market worldwide. 

iSeeCars does believe that two sectors in the industry will do well. One is plug in hybrids and the other is hybrids.

The EV industry was supposed to have 50% of all new car sales in the US in 2030. The iSeeCars prediction makes that impossible.

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