10 Florida Cities Where Home Values Are Expected To Decrease

Florida has been one of the fastest growing states in the 21st century. Between 2003 and 2023, Florida’s population grew by 33% – more than the reported growth in all but five other states over the same time period. The influx of new residents was a boon for local housing markets, as surging demand helped fuel steadily rising real estate values. Monthly home price data from Realtor.com shows median listings across the state climbed by over 10% year-over-year for most of 2021 and 2022. More recently, however, the trend appears to be reversing. 

After posting year-over-year declines every month since March 2024, the median list price of a single family home in Florida currently stands at $425,000, down nearly $70,000 from a peak of $493,500 in June 2022. In the last 12 months alone, some Florida metro areas have reported declines of 7% or more in home prices – and according to projections from the real estate data company Zillow, property values in certain parts of the state are expected to fall even further in the foreseeable future. 

According to the Zillow Home Value Forecast, 22 of the 29 metro areas in Florida with available data are expected to lose value over the next 12 months. In some of these places – many of which are coastal and increasingly susceptible to hurricane and flood damage – homes are expected to depreciate by thousands of dollars by June 2027. 

Using data from Zillow and Realtor.com, Climate Crisis 247 identified the Florida cities where home values are projected to plummet in the next year. We ranked all Florida metro areas on the relative, projected change in home values between June 1, 2026 and June 1, 2027. Only cities with projected declines of 1% or more were considered. Supplemental data on median list prices by month are from Realtor.com. 

11. Lakeland, Florida

• Projected median home list price change over the next 12 months: -1.0% (-$3,307)
• Change in median home list price over the last 12 months: -2.7% (-$9,231)
• Projected median home list price in June 2027: $327,362
• Median home list price in June 2026: $330,669
• Median home list price in June 2025: $339,900

10. Deltona, Florida

• Projected median home list price change over the next 12 months: -1.0% (-$3,799)
• Change in median home list price over the last 12 months: -3.6% (-$14,100)
• Projected median home list price in June 2027: $376,101
• Median home list price in June 2026: $379,900
• Median home list price in June 2025: $394,000

9. Jacksonville, Florida

• Projected median home list price change over the next 12 months: -1.0% (-$3,949)
• Change in median home list price over the last 12 months: -2.5% (-$10,100)
• Projected median home list price in June 2027: $390,951
• Median home list price in June 2026: $394,900
• Median home list price in June 2025: $405,000

8. Tampa, Florida

• Projected median home list price change over the next 12 months: -1.0% (-$4,000)
• Change in median home list price over the last 12 months: -4.2% (-$17,500)
• Projected median home list price in June 2027: $396,000
• Median home list price in June 2026: $400,000
• Median home list price in June 2025: $417,500

7. Palm Bay, Florida

• Projected median home list price change over the next 12 months: -1.1% (-$4,125)
• Change in median home list price over the last 12 months: -3.6% (-$14,000)
• Projected median home list price in June 2027: $370,875
• Median home list price in June 2026: $375,000
• Median home list price in June 2025: $389,000

6. Naples, Florida

• Projected median home list price change over the next 12 months: -1.4% (-$9,799)
• Change in median home list price over the last 12 months: -6.6% (-$49,100)
• Projected median home list price in June 2027: $690,101
• Median home list price in June 2026: $699,900
• Median home list price in June 2025: $749,000

5. The Villages, Florida

• Projected median home list price change over the next 12 months: -1.5% (-$5,624)
• Change in median home list price over the last 12 months: +1.4% (+$5,000)
• Projected median home list price in June 2027: $369,277
• Median home list price in June 2026: $374,900
• Median home list price in June 2025: $369,900

4. Crestview, Florida

• Projected median home list price change over the next 12 months: -1.9% (-$11,398)
• Change in median home list price over the last 12 months: -7.0% (-$45,100)
• Projected median home list price in June 2027: $588,502
• Median home list price in June 2026: $599,900
• Median home list price in June 2025: $645,000

3. Cape Coral, Florida

• Projected median home list price change over the next 12 months: -2.8% (-$11,172)
• Change in median home list price over the last 12 months: -7.2% (-$30,900)
• Projected median home list price in June 2027: $387,828
• Median home list price in June 2026: $399,000
• Median home list price in June 2025: $429,900

2. North Port, Florida

• Projected median home list price change over the next 12 months: -2.8% (-$13,580)
• Change in median home list price over the last 12 months: -2.0% (-$10,000)
• Projected median home list price in June 2027: $471,420
• Median home list price in June 2026: $485,000
• Median home list price in June 2025: $495,000

1. Punta Gorda, Florida

• Projected median home list price change over the next 12 months: -3.7% (-$14,060)
• Change in median home list price over the last 12 months: -2.5% (-$9,900)
• Projected median home list price in June 2027: $365,940
• Median home list price in June 2026: $380,000
• Median home list price in June 2025: $389,900