Air Conditioning Expected To Be Huge Drain On Global Energy

By Douglas McIntyre  •  October 16, 2024
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The IEA released its World Energy Outlook 2024. Its primary comments were on the risks to global energy supply and new drains on worldwide production. 

*Energy Source Challenges

*Shortage Hits New York City

*Heat And Drought Hit America

One of the primary conclusions was that air conditioning would be a major reason the world needs more oil, wind, solar, and nuclear energy. “More frequent and intense heatwaves than we assume in the STEPS (STorage of Energy and Power Systems), or higher performance standards applied to new appliances – notably air conditioners – both produce significantly greater variations in projected electricity demand than an upside case for data centres.” By 2035, this figure will match today’s total electricity used in the Middle East. The FT reports, “Higher temperatures and rising incomes could boost power demand coming from home cooling units by 280% by 2050.”

With temperatures running above 120 degrees F in the American southwest and throughout much of Asia at some points, there is no surprise. Even locations like Europe have similar challenges

The analysts’ other concerns are potential supply interruptions from energy sources due to conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. At the start of the Russian invasion, oil prices spiked to over $100. Many analysts believe it will breach that level again, even if there is only a worry about the energy supply. 

2030 Energy Use

The analysis also forecasts peak oil demand in 2030, a forecast that has been given before. Because of spikes in energy demand and too slow green energy expansion, crude oil remains essential as the primary supplier of the world’s energy. Fortunately, supply is plentiful, particularly because of US production. 

The IEA’s comments about green energy are twofold. The first is that supply varies widely by nation. The second is that China produced 60% of the renewable energy capacity in 2023. 

Finally, the IEA expects that the energy demand through 2100 will be such that global warming will accelerate between now and then. AC will be one of the primary reasons.

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