African EVs Sales Can’t Replace US
As Chinese car companies find themselves boxed out of Europe, Canada, and the US by tariffs, there is an argument that they can make up for some of this volume in Southeast Asia and Africa. Africa is a nearly worthless target financially.
There are 22 million “passenger vehicles” in Africa, categorized as cars, trucks, and motorcycles. Even if two-thirds of the vehicles are cars, which is unlikely in some undeveloped economies, the car count for the continent is less than 15 million. Car sales are probably not more than five million a year on a replacement basis.
US Market
There are 288 million gas-powered vehicles in the US. If two-thirds of the total population is cars, the figure is 200 million. Between 15 million and 17 million new cars are sold annually in the US. The comparable number in the EU is about 12 million.
Chinese EV companies can target South America, but that means working in over a dozen countries, many of which have very different markets.
Canada
Chinese EV companies need the US, Canada, and Europe to post meaningful expansion outside their home country.
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