EV Sales Won't Recover For Years

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EV sales have been slow in the US, brisk in China, and down in Germany. Industry leaders who have invested billions of dollars in EV production and governments that want to cut car emissions have different forecasts about when sales will increase. According to InsideClimate News, the wait won’t be short.

According to ICN, EV sales will account for 12% of new car and light truck sales in the US this year. The relatively slow pace will continue for the next two years. A Bloomberg forecast is that all-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids will account for “16 percent in 2025, 22 percent in 2026, and 29 percent in 2027.” However, plug-in hybrids are considered a bridge to EVs, which is not what the industry hopes the future will look like.

EV Price Barrier

The reasons for the pickup are that EV prices will fall and the number of charging stations will rise rapidly. Neither of these is assured. Tesla and legacy companies like Ford believe they will introduce $25,000 EVs in the next two years, but no evidence will happen. The only EVs priced below that level are Chinese, and the US government has put 100% tariffs on them.

Charging Stations

The charging station problem is also a challenge. Rising evidence shows that some charging stations are crowded, further delaying charging. Some locations have also been plagued by vandalism.

Several forecasts show that half of new car and light truck sales will be EVs by 2030. There is a case to be made that is not accurate.