Gas Powered Cars Are Disappearing
Despite the apparent trend that EVs have recently faced problems gaining market share from gas cars, research shows that this is not the case.
New data show that when the percentage of EVs in a given state reaches 30% of new sales, the number of gas-powered cars begins to fall.
Steve Case, the CEO of Recurrent, reports that this has already happened in Califonia and is expected to happen in Colorado and Washington next year.
EVs Growing Faster
As a nation, we have almost 300M cars on the road in operation today. Each year, there are 16M new cars sold, while 12M leave the road permanently (accidents, junked, etc). Since the vast majority of the cars permanently exiting operation are gas-powered, we actually only have to get to 4M new EV + plugin hybrid sales per year nationally before the number of gas cars begins to decline. Nationwide, that’ll happen as early as 2029.
If it is true, it is the best news the EV industry in the US has had since Tesla launched its first car. There was a surge in EV purchases after Elon Musk offered his first model. Shortly thereafter, companies, including Ford, began investing tens of billions of dollars to capture EV market share. EV sales have recently slowed considerably, and the resurgence of the fossil fuel car industry has dominated the news.
The flaw with Case’s forecast is that the 30% tipping point may not happen in most states.
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