From Atlanta to Cincinnati, 25 Cities With the Greatest Heat Risk This Weekend

By Evan Comen • July 25, 2025

https://climate-crisis-247-bucket.nyc3.digitaloceanspaces.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/07/07211435/NWS-Heat-Risk-Forecast-July-27-2025-150x150.png

This weekend, more than two dozen major cities are forecast to break heat records. New York City could hit 98°F on Saturday, breaking a heat record from 1892 by 2°F, while smaller cities like Providence and New Haven could see more dramatic anomalies.

While temperatures will approach 100°F in the Northeast, dry-bulb temperatures are just one component of heat risk. In an effort to model comprehensive heat risk, the National Weather Service publishes a daily HeatRisk forecast, a composite metric measuring temperatures, humidity, duration of heat, and how unusual heat is for the time of year in a given geography.

Whence the next pandemic? Cities Where the Next Pandemic Is Most Likely to Break Out
Hot property? From Maui to Malibu, These Affluent Enclaves Are Becoming Wildfire Hotspots

NWS forecasts show that heat risk will increase slightly over the weekend, concentrating in the Southeast. While 222 counties will experience major heat risk on Friday, that number will nearly triple to 658 by Sunday. Some 17 counties will experience extreme heat risk – the most severe category of heat risk – on Sunday, representing 2.0 million Americans. A closer look at the data reveals the cities with the greatest heat risk this weekend.

To determine the cities with the highest heat risk this weekend, Climate Crisis 247 reviewed data on heat risk from the NOAA’s National Weather Service. Cities were ranked based on average NWS HeatRisk score for the period July 25 to 27, 2025. Supplemental data on forecast temperature maximums are from the NOAA’s National Digital Forecast Database. Only cities with at least 115,000 residents were considered. Population data is from the U.S. Census Bureau.

25. Tampa, FL

Photo by Chalo Garcia on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 24, 2025: 2.01/4 (high of 92.4°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 25, 2025: 2.63/4 (high of 93.3°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 26, 2025: 2.87/4 (high of 94.3°F)
Total population: 388,768

24. Arlington, VA

Photo by Nicole Saavedra on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 24, 2025: 2.94/4 (high of 91.5°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 25, 2025: 2.72/4 (high of 98.5°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 26, 2025: 2.28/4 (high of 94.0°F)
Total population: 235,845

23. Atlanta, GA

Photo by ibuki Tsubo on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 24, 2025: 2.00/4 (high of 91.7°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 25, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 92.8°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 26, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 95.0°F)
Total population: 494,838

22. Orlando, FL

Photo by Mick Haupt on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 24, 2025: 2.06/4 (high of 93.2°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 25, 2025: 2.97/4 (high of 94.0°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 26, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 96.7°F)
Total population: 307,738

21. Chesapeake, VA

Photo by Matt Hardison on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 24, 2025: 2.16/4 (high of 88.3°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 25, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 95.6°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 26, 2025: 2.92/4 (high of 93.7°F)
Total population: 249,377

20. Washington, DC

Photo by Yiyang on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 24, 2025: 2.91/4 (high of 91.6°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 25, 2025: 2.45/4 (high of 98.4°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 26, 2025: 2.74/4 (high of 93.8°F)
Total population: 670,587

19. Augusta, GA

Photo by Prady D on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 24, 2025: 2.17/4 (high of 91.9°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 25, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 96.3°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 26, 2025: 3.05/4 (high of 99.3°F)
Total population: 201,615

18. Baltimore, MD

Photo by Irina Sitnikova on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 24, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 91.3°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 25, 2025: 2.96/4 (high of 97.8°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 26, 2025: 2.36/4 (high of 91.9°F)
Total population: 584,548

17. Memphis, TN

Photo by Emily Finch on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 24, 2025: 2.84/4 (high of 96.8°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 25, 2025: 2.54/4 (high of 93.9°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 26, 2025: 2.99/4 (high of 94.0°F)
Total population: 630,027

16. Jacksonville, FL

Photo by Jacksonville Beach Moms on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 24, 2025: 2.24/4 (high of 92.0°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 25, 2025: 2.96/4 (high of 93.0°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 26, 2025: 3.26/4 (high of 96.0°F)
Total population: 950,203

15. Columbus, OH

Photo by Ellie Brown on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 24, 2025: 2.97/4 (high of 92.2°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 25, 2025: 2.89/4 (high of 90.5°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 26, 2025: 2.84/4 (high of 91.4°F)
Total population: 902,449

14. Huntsville, AL

Photo by Megan Lee on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 24, 2025: 2.79/4 (high of 93.3°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 25, 2025: 2.98/4 (high of 91.5°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 26, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 93.0°F)
Total population: 215,025

13. Louisville, KY

Photo by andrew welch on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 24, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 93.1°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 25, 2025: 2.94/4 (high of 94.7°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 26, 2025: 2.97/4 (high of 92.7°F)
Total population: 629,176

12. Nashville, TN

Photo by Tanner Boriack on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 24, 2025: 2.97/4 (high of 95.3°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 25, 2025: 2.98/4 (high of 94.3°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 26, 2025: 2.98/4 (high of 94.5°F)
Total population: 684,103

11. Indianapolis, IN

Photo by Lance Asper on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 24, 2025: 2.93/4 (high of 93.6°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 25, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 90.1°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 26, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 91.2°F)
Total population: 882,006

10. St. Louis, MO

Photo by Kawshar Ahmed on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 24, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 97.0°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 25, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 94.0°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 26, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 96.1°F)
Total population: 298,018

9. Cincinnati, OH

Photo by TopSphere Media on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 24, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 93.3°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 25, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 93.6°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 26, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 93.6°F)
Total population: 308,870

8. Richmond, VA

Photo by Alexander Jawfox on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 24, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 89.0°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 25, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 96.0°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 26, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 95.7°F)
Total population: 227,171

7. Greensboro, NC

Photo by Neil Matson on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 24, 2025: 2.74/4 (high of 88.1°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 25, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 94.3°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 26, 2025: 3.77/4 (high of 94.9°F)
Total population: 297,202

6. Lexington, KY

Photo by USA-Reiseblogger on Pixabay

NWS HeatRisk score, July 24, 2025: 3.15/4 (high of 92.3°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 25, 2025: 3.30/4 (high of 93.8°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 26, 2025: 3.30/4 (high of 92.2°F)
Total population: 321,276

5. Winston-Salem, NC

Photo by Lamont Mead on Pexels

NWS HeatRisk score, July 24, 2025: 2.96/4 (high of 89.3°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 25, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 95.7°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 26, 2025: 4.00/4 (high of 97.0°F)
Total population: 249,571

4. Durham, NC

Photo by Colin Rowley on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 24, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 90.6°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 25, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 96.5°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 26, 2025: 3.99/4 (high of 99.7°F)
Total population: 284,094

3. Charlotte, NC

Photo by Matthew Chandler on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 24, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 93.1°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 25, 2025: 3.07/4 (high of 97.1°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 26, 2025: 4.00/4 (high of 99.9°F)
Total population: 875,045

2. Raleigh, NC

Photo by Sam Szuchan on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 24, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 90.4°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 25, 2025: 3.24/4 (high of 96.3°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 26, 2025: 3.93/4 (high of 100.6°F)
Total population: 465,517

1. Fayetteville, NC

Photo by Chris Silverman on Unsplash

NWS HeatRisk score, July 24, 2025: 3.00/4 (high of 92.3°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 25, 2025: 3.41/4 (high of 98.2°F)
NWS HeatRisk score, July 26, 2025: 4.00/4 (high of 102.0°F)
Total population: 208,697

Finding a fiduciary financial advisor doesn't have to be hard. SmartAsset's free tool matches you with up to 3 financial advisors that serve your area in 5 minutes.
Each advisor has been vetted by SmartAsset and is held to a fiduciary standard to act in your best interests. Get on the path toward achieving your financial goals!

More from ClimateCrisis 247