On the Biggest Outdoor Day of the Year, These 25 Cities Will Have the Highest Heat Risk

By Evan Comen  •  July 3, 2025
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The Fourth of July is one of the biggest outdoor days of the year, with parades, cookouts, and fireworks drawing millions of Americans outside, for hours at a time. But as temperatures climb, so do health risks. Emergency room visits typically spike during the holiday, with heat-related illnesses accounting for more than 1% of all ER admissions.

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To help communicate the danger, the National Weather Service issues a daily HeatRisk score from 0 to 4, reflecting how unusual and hazardous forecast temperatures are for a given area. This Fourth of July, more than a dozen large cities are forecast to experience “major” heat risk – meaning heat could pose moderate to high danger for anyone without access to shade, hydration, or cooling.

Heat risk will be highest in the Midwest, with some cities in the Southeast also feeling the burn. A closer look at the data reveals the cities where heat intensity, humidity, and abnormally high temperatures will culminate in the greatest heat – and health – risks this holiday.

To determine the cities with the highest heat risk this Fourth of July, Climate Crisis 247 reviewed data on heat risk from the NOAA’s National Weather Service. Cities were ranked based on average NWS HeatRisk score for July 4, 2025. Supplemental data on forecast temperature maximums are from the NOAA’s National Digital Forecast Database. Only cities with at least 100,000 residents were considered. Population data is from the U.S. Census Bureau.

25. Sterling Heights, MI

Photo by Robert Schrader on Pexels

  • NWS HeatRisk score, July 4th, 2025: 2.00/4 (moderate)
  • Maximum temperature, July 4th, 2025: 86.6°F 
  • Normal July 4th maximum, 2006-2020: 82.0°F
  • Total population: 133,744
 

24. Grand Rapids, MI

Photo by Collin Blatt on Unsplash

  • NWS HeatRisk score, July 4th, 2025: 2.00/4 (moderate)
  • Maximum temperature, July 4th, 2025: 88.1°F 
  • Normal July 4th maximum, 2006-2020: 83.3°F
  • Total population: 198,096
 

23. Warren, MI

Photo by Jarosław Kwoczała on Unsplash

  • NWS HeatRisk score, July 4th, 2025: 2.00/4 (moderate)
  • Maximum temperature, July 4th, 2025: 87.1°F 
  • Normal July 4th maximum, 2006-2020: 82.0°F
  • Total population: 138,588
 

22. Omaha, NE

Photo by Jesse Duering on Unsplash

  • NWS HeatRisk score, July 4th, 2025: 2.00/4 (moderate)
  • Maximum temperature, July 4th, 2025: 93.6°F 
  • Normal July 4th maximum, 2006-2020: 88.4°F
  • Total population: 489,201
 

21. Sioux Falls, SD

Photo by Sergei Sushchik on Unsplash

  • NWS HeatRisk score, July 4th, 2025: 2.00/4 (moderate)
  • Maximum temperature, July 4th, 2025: 93.3°F 
  • Normal July 4th maximum, 2006-2020: 85.8°F
  • Total population: 193,401
 

20. Atlanta, GA

Photo by ibuki Tsubo on Unsplash

  • NWS HeatRisk score, July 4th, 2025: 2.05/4 (moderate)
  • Maximum temperature, July 4th, 2025: 92.0°F 
  • Normal July 4th maximum, 2006-2020: 89.5°F
  • Total population: 494,838
 

19. Metairie, LA

Photo by Darryl Terrell on Unsplash

  • NWS HeatRisk score, July 4th, 2025: 2.07/4 (moderate)
  • Maximum temperature, July 4th, 2025: 94.2°F 
  • Normal July 4th maximum, 2006-2020: 91.1°F
  • Total population: 140,046
 

18. New Orleans, LA

Photo by Kool C on Unsplash

  • NWS HeatRisk score, July 4th, 2025: 2.07/4 (moderate)
  • Maximum temperature, July 4th, 2025: 92.2°F 
  • Normal July 4th maximum, 2006-2020: 91.1°F
  • Total population: 380,408
 

17. Green Bay, WI

Photo by Gary Meulemans on Unsplash

  • NWS HeatRisk score, July 4th, 2025: 2.13/4 (moderate)
  • Maximum temperature, July 4th, 2025: 80.1°F 
  • Normal July 4th maximum, 2006-2020: 79.4°F
  • Total population: 106,846
 

16. Baton Rouge, LA

Photo by Leo_Visions on Unsplash

  • NWS HeatRisk score, July 4th, 2025: 2.23/4 (moderate)
  • Maximum temperature, July 4th, 2025: 93.9°F 
  • Normal July 4th maximum, 2006-2020: 91.9°F
  • Total population: 225,500
 

15. South Bend, IN

Photo by Sarah Miller-Coral on Unsplash

  • NWS HeatRisk score, July 4th, 2025: 2.56/4 (major)
  • Maximum temperature, July 4th, 2025: 88.1°F 
  • Normal July 4th maximum, 2006-2020: 82.8°F
  • Total population: 103,084
 

14. Joliet, IL

Photo by Ray Graciano on Unsplash

  • NWS HeatRisk score, July 4th, 2025: 2.94/4 (major)
  • Maximum temperature, July 4th, 2025: 90.9°F 
  • Normal July 4th maximum, 2006-2020: 83.4°F
  • Total population: 150,221
 

13. Fargo, ND

Photo by Rob Steele on Unsplash

  • NWS HeatRisk score, July 4th, 2025: 2.95/4 (major)
  • Maximum temperature, July 4th, 2025: 89.3°F 
  • Normal July 4th maximum, 2006-2020: 83.0°F
  • Total population: 127,319
 

12. Chicago, IL

Photo by Pedro Lastra on Unsplash

  • NWS HeatRisk score, July 4th, 2025: 2.97/4 (major)
  • Maximum temperature, July 4th, 2025: 87.9°F 
  • Normal July 4th maximum, 2006-2020: 85.0°F
  • Total population: 2,721,914
 

11. Peoria, IL

Photo by BlackBox on Unsplash

  • NWS HeatRisk score, July 4th, 2025: 3.00/4 (major)
  • Maximum temperature, July 4th, 2025: 90.3°F 
  • Normal July 4th maximum, 2006-2020: 86.4°F
  • Total population: 113,054
 

10. St. Paul, MN

Photo by weston m on Unsplash

  • NWS HeatRisk score, July 4th, 2025: 3.00/4 (major)
  • Maximum temperature, July 4th, 2025: 86.9°F 
  • Normal July 4th maximum, 2006-2020: 82.0°F
  • Total population: 308,806
 

9. Rochester, MN

Photo by Cody Otto on Unsplash

  • NWS HeatRisk score, July 4th, 2025: 3.00/4 (major)
  • Maximum temperature, July 4th, 2025: 86.5°F 
  • Normal July 4th maximum, 2006-2020: 81.2°F
  • Total population: 120,848
 

8. Rockford, IL

Photo by Bruno Coimbra on Unsplash

  • NWS HeatRisk score, July 4th, 2025: 3.00/4 (major)
  • Maximum temperature, July 4th, 2025: 89.6°F 
  • Normal July 4th maximum, 2006-2020: 84.2°F
  • Total population: 148,173
 

7. Minneapolis, MN

Photo by Nicole Geri on Unsplash

  • NWS HeatRisk score, July 4th, 2025: 3.00/4 (major)
  • Maximum temperature, July 4th, 2025: 87.5°F 
  • Normal July 4th maximum, 2006-2020: 82.0°F
  • Total population: 426,877
 

6. Madison, WI

Photo by Josh Sorenson on Unsplash

  • NWS HeatRisk score, July 4th, 2025: 3.00/4 (major)
  • Maximum temperature, July 4th, 2025: 87.4°F 
  • Normal July 4th maximum, 2006-2020: 81.8°F
  • Total population: 268,516
 

5. Naperville, IL

Photo by Michael Carruth on Unsplash

  • NWS HeatRisk score, July 4th, 2025: 3.00/4 (major)
  • Maximum temperature, July 4th, 2025: 90.6°F 
  • Normal July 4th maximum, 2006-2020: 84.5°F
  • Total population: 149,089
 

4. Aurora, IL

Photo by Sean P. Twomey on Pexels

  • NWS HeatRisk score, July 4th, 2025: 3.00/4 (major)
  • Maximum temperature, July 4th, 2025: 90.8°F 
  • Normal July 4th maximum, 2006-2020: 84.5°F
  • Total population: 181,405
 

3. Davenport, IA

Photo by Isaiah Borgos on Pexels

  • NWS HeatRisk score, July 4th, 2025: 3.00/4 (major)
  • Maximum temperature, July 4th, 2025: 90.7°F 
  • Normal July 4th maximum, 2006-2020: 84.2°F
  • Total population: 101,448
 

2. Cedar Rapids, IA

Photo by Joel Drzycimski on Unsplash

  • NWS HeatRisk score, July 4th, 2025: 3.00/4 (major)
  • Maximum temperature, July 4th, 2025: 90.6°F 
  • Normal July 4th maximum, 2006-2020: 83.0°F
  • Total population: 136,929
 

1. Elgin, IL

Photo by AdinaVoicu on Pixabay

  • NWS HeatRisk score, July 4th, 2025: 3.00/4 (major)
  • Maximum temperature, July 4th, 2025: 89.6°F 
  • Normal July 4th maximum, 2006-2020: 81.8°F
  • Total population: 114,190
 

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