Climate Crisis AM Edition 2/20/24 $100 Oil
US gas prices have started to rise after several months of decreases. Although they are not expected to spike as much as they did in the summer of 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine, Gas Buddy’s new gas price forecast includes a caution about geopolitical threats. The average price of gasoline has gone up $.087 from a week ago to $3.26 per gallon. Over the last month, the increase is $.116. Part of the increase is the anticipation that more people will drive; many will drive longer distances when spring begins in several weeks. However, Gas Buddy experts noted another reason is “tensions in the Middle East again perk up between Israel and Lebanon, as Israel bombed Lebanon last week in retaliation for earlier rocket attacks.”
Gas Price —Major Threat To US Economy
Worst Pollution —A City Destroyed By Dangerous Air
Another analysis of fuel prices is more ominous. Citigroup has forecasted that oil prices could rise as high as $100 in 2025. The last time they hit this level was after the Russian invasion of Ukraine briefly affected crude supplies worldwide. Oil prices above $100 are a significant threat to the global economy. According to CNBC, Citi’s analysis indicates, “The catalysts for oil to hit $100 per barrel include higher geopolitical risks, deeper OPEC+ cuts, and supply disruptions from key oil-producing regions.” Attacks on shipping in the Red Sea have picked up recently.
Killing Green Lending
Banks and investment banks have started to back away from their “green commitments.” In the past, most of these were based on lowering or eliminating the financial support of fossil fuel companies and projects. Among the reasons for the change is investor pressure to increase financial returns. Funding of fossil fuels has been a lucrative practice. According to The New York Times, Aron Cramer, chief executive for BSR, a sustainable-business consultancy, said, “The political cost has heightened, the legal risk has heightened.” Republican politicians have pressured companies to ignore environmental initiatives. The change of circumstances could greatly undermine the pressure put on financial firms over the last few years to abandon funding projects that cause global warming.
Nations may lower their emissions and carbon footprint by exporting used cars. That is the conclusion of a Nature study titled “Offshoring emissions through used vehicle exports.” The study covered used vehicle exports from the UK from 2005 to 2021. “Destined for low–middle-income countries, exported vehicles fail roadworthiness standards and, even under extremely optimistic ‘functioning-as-new’ assumptions, generate at least 13–53% more emissions than scrapped or on-road vehicles.” Many developing and third world nations, including those in Africa and India, have large numbers of older vehicles, some of which use leaded gas and do not have emission reduction technology. Among the study’s conclusions, “Used vehicles were exported at an average 8.5 years of age, and both emissions and fuel efficiency degrade with age.”
