Climate Crisis Could Make 50% Of GDP Disappear.
US GDP has risen over 3% in most quarters over the last two years. China’s troubled economy boasted a 5% increase in the same period. Global GDP has risen 1.5% and 2% over a similar period. The IMF expects that pace to continue in the short term–absent a global recession. A new study of the long-term effects of climate change forecasts that worldwide GDP could drop by half if the global climate crisis worsens.
Economic Models
Inside Climate Change reports, “Economic modeling by the University of Exeter and the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries in the U.K., projects that proceeding with business as usual without sharply reducing emissions could cut global gross domestic product (GDP) in half as soon as 2070.” Today, the figure seems impossible.
To establish the forecast’s foundation, the scientists believe that global temperatures could rise 3 degrees C later in the century and, in the worst case, 4 degrees C.
Disappearing Forests
At the center of the analysis are the predictions that the polar ice caps will melt at an accelerating rate, flooding many areas and the world’s oceans. Huge forests, particularly in the Amazon, will be destroyed. Temperature changes would ruin much of the world’s agricultural production.
Among the largest challenges is that these changes could sharply cut the world’s employment base. One example is, “who will grow the food if there are conditions under which it cannot be grown?”
The solutions proposed by the analysts who created the study are usually part of the arguments to slow climate change. First, fossil fuels must be eliminated. Solar and wind must be the source of the most energy. EV growth needs to accelerate. The primary issue, however, is that some of these behavior changes are heading in the wrong direction.
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