Counties, Mostly In Florida, Facing Huge Losses to Home Value
Climate change has influenced residential property values for as long as people have been buying and selling homes. Those values are most often viewed through the lens of the purchase and sale transaction.
One factor slowing the real estate market has been high mortgage rates. In 2021, a 30-year fixed mortgage was available at roughly 3%. By 2023, that rate had climbed to 7%, and while it has since eased, the relief has been modest — the current national average stands at about 6.2%.
During much of this same period, home values have been buoyed by a generally strong economy. As household wealth has grown, so have home prices. According to SoFi Learn, the average net worth of an American household rose from $749,000 (2016–2019) to $1.06 million (2019–2022). Given stock market performance alone, that figure has almost certainly continued to climb through the present.
Climate change, meanwhile, has made home insurance an increasingly significant factor in property valuation. In some parts of the country, surging insurance costs have begun to drag home prices down. The New York Times ran a story last year titled “A Climate ‘Shock’ Is Eroding Some Home Values. New Data Shows How Much.” Drawing on research from the National Bureau of Economic Research, the article concluded that since 2014, rising insurance premiums had weighed down home values by approximately $20,500 in the top 25% of homes most exposed to catastrophic hurricanes and wildfires, and by $43,900 in the top 10%. Louisiana was cited as a particularly stark example: while home values nationwide have risen roughly 60% since 2018, they have increased by only about 15% in New Orleans — and in Bogalusa, just north of the city, values have not risen at all.
Last year, climate risk financial modeling company First Street published its twelfth annual report, titled “Property Prices in Peril,” through the First Street Foundation. Its central finding was striking: “By 2055, 70,026 neighborhoods (84% of all census tracts) may experience some form of negative property value impacts from climate risk, totaling $1.47 trillion in net property value losses due to insurance pressures and shifting consumer demand.” Florida and Texas are projected to bear the greatest burden.
The study identified areas at risk of falling real estate values by combining rising insurance costs with broader market-wide declines. To determine which cities could see double-digit price collapses between last year and 2055, Climate Crisis247 analyzed First Street data alongside reporting and research from Forbes, The Center for Law, Energy, & the Environment (CLEE), Center for American Progress Action Fund, and the United Nations Prevention Web.
The First Street Report concluded: “The traditional drivers of real estate value — location, economy, and amenities — are being transformed by a new calculus that must account for long-term environmental vulnerability.”
The following are the cities and counties projected to see the largest drops in home values:
| Rank | Location | Total Projected Drop | Insurance Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broward County, FL (Miami metro) | -76.1% | -77.1% |
| 2 | Duval County, FL (Jacksonville metro) | -73.8% | -73.9% |
| 3 | Miami-Dade County, FL (Miami metro) | -69.6% | -70.2% |
| 4 | Brevard County, FL (Palm Bay metro) | -60.0% | -60.2% |
| 5 | Pasco County, FL (Tampa metro) | -48.0% | -48.7% |
| 6 | Hillsborough County, FL (Tampa metro) | -42.9% | -43.7% |
| 7 | Palm Beach County, FL (Miami metro) | -37.4% | -38.2% |
| 8 | Pinellas County, FL (Tampa–St. Petersburg metro) | -20.2% | -20.4% |
| 9 | Fresno County, CA | -14.4% | — |
