Deeply Flawed Weather Forecasting -Most Important Climate News 7.15.24

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Extremely high temperatures that have hit major cities this year are causing dangerous burns. According to The New York Times, “As climate change pushes summer temperatures ever higher and for longer stretches, and with more Americans moving into rapidly expanding cities in the Southwest, more people suffer serious burns from contact with hot outdoor surfaces.” Climatecrisis247 believes this has become yet one more health consequence of sweltering temperatures. Last year, over 600 people died from the heat in the Phoenix metro area. The city had 54 days when temperatures were above 110 degrees F. Scorching temperatures during the Hajj ritual in Mecca killed 1,301.

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Marathon Oil was hit with a $241 million penalty for violating the Clean Air Act in North Dakota. The Justice Department and EPA deal requires Marathon to reduce emissions at its Fort Berthold Indian Reservation by 2.3 million tons. According to NPR, The agencies said the case is the first of its kind against an oil and gas producer for “violations of major source emissions permitting requirements under the Clean Air Act’s Prevention of Significant Deterioration program.” Climatecrisis247 believes that this may be the first of dozens of settlements of cases brought by cities and states. These jurisdictions claim that fossil fuel companies harmed the environment and that their management was aware of these risks decades ago. If these settlements are large enough, eventually, they will mirror the actions and penalties against Big Tobacco in 1998.

Huge Grid Price Tag

Power grids are not only buckling under the need for electricity during sweltering days. According to Bloomberg, the problem is global. The news company reports, “Unstable networks create instability for businesses, roil politics and threaten lives. Expanding the grid will cost about $24.1 trillion to meet net-zero goals by 2050, outpacing the investment needed in renewable-power capacity, according to BloombergNEF. Because of their vast areas and high energy use, the US and China face the biggest bills, but no country is spared.” Climatecrisis247 believes these costs add to the trillions of dollars needed to slow climate change. And, they are costs few, if any, nations can afford. Because of that, the change in global temperatures will continue to rise, is almost assured.

Trouble Forecasting Storms

The speed at which Hurricane Beryl strengthened raises questions about how intense storms will become and how difficult it will be to forecast them. InDepth News reports, “Beryl rapidly intensified from a tropical storm into a major hurricane, slamming into Jamaica, Tobago, and several islands that make up Grenada and St. Vincent and the Grenadines before making its way to Texas and Mexico.” Climatecrisis247 believes that forecasting models have had difficulty predicting some storms as they strengthen significantly over periods as short as a day. One solution to this appears to be using AI to model storm predictions more rapidly and accurately.