Freezing Rain, High Winds, And Dense Fog Could Impact Voter Turnout In Key Swing States Today

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The 2024 presidential election is forecast to be one of the closest in U.S. history. Also forecast is a series of severe weather patterns that could impact turnout in contested counties and battleground states.

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In total, there are 893 counties under some kind of active National Weather Service warning, watch, or advisory today, representing 41.6% of the U.S. population. Some of the larger systems include a freeze warning in southwest New Mexico, a winter storm watch in northeast New Mexico, snow in Colorado, dense fog throughout the Dakotas, and high winds in Indiana and Illinois.

There are also smaller systems impacting swing states that could have important election influence. In Nevada, for example, there is a freeze watch and high wind advisory affecting some of the most purple counties in the state. One area currently under the compound weather hazards is Las Vegas and surrounding Clark County, where in 2020 Biden beat Trump by just 9.4 percentage points – one of the tighter margins of any major county.

In North Carolina, a dense fog system could impact voter turnout in key counties. There are 46 counties in North Carolina under dense fog advisory as of November 5, including up-for-grabs counties like Nash, Pasquotank, and Scotland. In 2020, Biden won Nash County by just 0.2 percentage points – a difference of just about 100 people.
While weather has had an historically minor impact on turnout, bad weather in critical counties could have a significant impact in an election as close as today’s. In a 2023 study published in the peer-reviewed journal Electoral Studies, researchers found that bad weather has the greatest impact on younger, marginal voters relative to die-hard, experienced voters. A meta-analysis of 34 voting studies found that rain reduces voter turnout by about 1% per centimeter, while sunshine increases turnout.