home prices Along The California Coast Are plunging

By Douglas McIntyre  •  February 19, 2026
Aerial view of the scenic train bridge and river in Sacramento, California, surrounded by lush foliage.
Photo by Stephen Leonardi on Pexels

California’s housing market is the most expensive in the continental United States. According to Realtor.com, the median list price of a single-family home in California is $699,000, nearly $300,000 more than the median list price across the U.S. as a whole. Home values in the state have been steadily falling in recent years, however. Currently, the typical list price in California is about 1% lower than it was a year ago, and 11% below the statewide peak of $786,438, reported in May 2024. 

But when it comes to the real estate market, location matters – and broad, statewide trends are not necessarily an accurate reflection of every local market. In fact, 22 of the 58 counties in California had higher median list prices at the end of 2025 than they did one year earlier. And many of the counties reporting the largest year-over-year list-price declines are coastal areas that have high exposure to one of the most predictable consequences of climate change – sea-level rise.  

Average global temperatures have been rising for decades, and atmospheric warming has been melting glaciers and adding volume to the world’s oceans. Antarctica and Greenland, the two largest ice sheets in the world, have lost a combined average of 226 billion metric tons of ice per year since the 1970s, according to the European Union’s Earth Observation Programme, Copernicus. Even if global commitments to mitigate the worst effects of climate change are met, sea levels are projected to continue to rise in the next 25 years.

This trend poses a clear threat to parts of coastal California, where water levels could climb 20 inches or more by the end of the century. Even as early as 2050, tens of thousands of Californians are projected to be at risk of regular, severe flooding. In many of the most exposed communities along the California coast, home prices are falling rapidly. 

Using data from Climate Central and Realtor.com, Climate Crisis 247 identified the high flood-risk California housing markets where home values are cratering. We reviewed the change in median list prices between December 2024 and December 2025 for 29 counties along the California coast, and ranked those counties on the number of residents expected to face risk of severe flooding by the year 2050. Only counties with declining home values were considered. Supplemental data on future flooding and sea-level rise projections are from Climate Central. 

Among the 10 counties on this list, median list prices have fallen by as much as 9.9% in the last year. In a majority of cases, the most recent year-over-year home value decline is a continuation of a longer-term trend, as eight of these counties also reported falling list prices between 2023 and 2024. Collectively, these counties are home to millions of people, and by 2050, more than 53,000 of them are projected to be at risk of severe flooding. 

10. Napa County, California

  • Population at risk of severe flooding by 2050: 205 people (0.2% of local pop.)
  • Flooding projections by 2050: at least one 2.3 ft. flood per year
  • Expected local sea-level rise by 2100: 1.7 feet
  • Median home list price in Dec. 2025: $1,304,500 (-9.9% from Dec. 2024)
  • Active list count in Dec. 2025: 391 homes (+30.8% from Dec. 2024)
  • Typical time a home spent on the market in Dec. 2025: 103 days (+4.3% from Dec. 2024)

9. Sacramento County, California

  • Population at risk of severe flooding by 2050: 775 people (0.1% of local pop.)
  • Flooding projections by 2050: at least one 2.3 ft. flood per year
  • Expected local sea-level rise by 2100: 1.6 feet
  • Median home list price in Dec. 2025: $535,000 (-1.4% from Dec. 2024)
  • Active list count in Dec. 2025: 1,747 homes (+18.6% from Dec. 2024)
  • Typical time a home spent on the market in Dec. 2025: 59 days (+10.4% from Dec. 2024)

8. Contra Costa County, California

  • Population at risk of severe flooding by 2050: 1,294 people (0.1% of local pop.)
  • Flooding projections by 2050: at least one 2.3 ft. flood per year
  • Expected local sea-level rise by 2100: 1.7 feet
  • Median home list price in Dec. 2025: $720,500 (-1.6% from Dec. 2024)
  • Active list count in Dec. 2025: 1,273 homes (+10.0% from Dec. 2024)
  • Typical time a home spent on the market in Dec. 2025: 54 days (unchanged from Dec. 2024)

7. Humboldt County, California

  • Population at risk of severe flooding by 2050: 1,419 people (1.0% of local pop.)
  • Flooding projections by 2050: at least one 2.7 ft. flood per year
  • Expected local sea-level rise by 2100: 1.8 feet
  • Median home list price in Dec. 2025: $472,000 (-0.4% from Dec. 2024)
  • Active list count in Dec. 2025: 377 homes (-1.3% from Dec. 2024)
  • Typical time a home spent on the market in Dec. 2025: 99 days (+1.5% from Dec. 2024)
aerial photography of boat harbour during daytime
Photo by Joshua Sortino on Unsplash

6. San Francisco County, California

  • Population at risk of severe flooding by 2050: 1,985 people (0.2% of local pop.)
  • Flooding projections by 2050: at least one 2.2 ft. flood per year
  • Expected local sea-level rise by 2100: 1.7 feet
  • Median home list price in Dec. 2025: $1,055,225 (-3.0% from Dec. 2024)
  • Active list count in Dec. 2025: 479 homes (-31.8% from Dec. 2024)
  • Typical time a home spent on the market in Dec. 2025: 91 days (unchanged from Dec. 2024)

5. San Diego County, California

  • Population at risk of severe flooding by 2050: 2,232 people (0.1% of local pop.)
  • Flooding projections by 2050: at least one 2.4 ft. flood per year
  • Expected local sea-level rise by 2100: 1.6 feet
  • Median home list price in Dec. 2025: $899,999 (-6.7% from Dec. 2024)
  • Active list count in Dec. 2025: 4,222 homes (+14.2% from Dec. 2024)
  • Typical time a home spent on the market in Dec. 2025: 57 days (+3.6% from Dec. 2024)

4. Solano County, California

  • Population at risk of severe flooding by 2050: 2,984 people (0.7% of local pop.)
  • Flooding projections by 2050: at least one 2.3 ft. flood per year
  • Expected local sea-level rise by 2100: 1.7 feet
  • Median home list price in Dec. 2025: $559,750 (-3.5% from Dec. 2024)
  • Active list count in Dec. 2025: 651 homes (+7.5% from Dec. 2024)
  • Typical time a home spent on the market in Dec. 2025: 69 days (+27.8% from Dec. 2024)

3. Los Angeles County, California

  • Population at risk of severe flooding by 2050: 6,375 people (0.1% of local pop.)
  • Flooding projections by 2050: at least one 2.4 ft. flood per year
  • Expected local sea-level rise by 2100: 1.6 feet
  • Median home list price in Dec. 2025: $970,000 (-2.7% from Dec. 2024)
  • Active list count in Dec. 2025: 11,526 homes (+15.8% from Dec. 2024)
  • Typical time a home spent on the market in Dec. 2025: 67 days (+6.4% from Dec. 2024)

2. Santa Clara County, California

  • Population at risk of severe flooding by 2050: 6,936 people (0.4% of local pop.)
  • Flooding projections by 2050: at least one 2.2 ft. flood per year
  • Expected local sea-level rise by 2100: 1.6 feet
  • Median home list price in Dec. 2025: $1,269,750 (-6.4% from Dec. 2024)
  • Active list count in Dec. 2025: 908 homes (+24.4% from Dec. 2024)
  • Typical time a home spent on the market in Dec. 2025: 54 days (+12.5% from Dec. 2024)

1. San Mateo County, California

  • Population at risk of severe flooding by 2050: 28,810 people (3.8% of local pop.)
  • Flooding projections by 2050: at least one 2.2 ft. flood per year
  • Expected local sea-level rise by 2100: 1.7 feet
  • Median home list price in Dec. 2025: $1,434,000 (-4.3% from Dec. 2024)
  • Active list count in Dec. 2025: 423 homes (+10.6% from Dec. 2024)
  • Typical time a home spent on the market in Dec. 2025: 63 days (+3.3% from Dec. 2024)


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