Home Prices In Florida Expected to Decrease Further in 2026

By Sam Stebbins  •  February 9, 2026
A row of houses on a beach with palm trees
Photo by Ace King on Unsplash

Historically, coastal properties have commanded a premium in the U.S. housing market. Higher property values along the coast are fundamentally linked to a mismatch between supply and demand. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, coastal counties – excluding those in Alaska – account for less than 10% of land area in the United States. Yet these places are home to nearly 40% of the U.S. population. 

With over 8,400 miles of coastline, the most of any state in the continental U.S., Florida has reported a population boom in recent decades. Between 1980 and 2024, the number of Americans living in Florida surged by nearly 138%, more than double the comparable national population growth rate. As of 2020, approximately 75% of Floridians were living in counties along the Atlantic or Gulf coasts. But, in the era of climate change, many of Florida’s 16 million-plus coastal residents may be reconsidering. 

As heat-trapping greenhouse gasses accumulate in the Earth’s atmosphere, global temperatures will continue to trend upward, hastening glacial melt. Even if global commitments to mitigate the worst effects of climate change are met, sea levels are projected to rise measurably in the next 25 years. Antarctica and Greenland, the two largest ice sheets in the world, have lost a combined average of 226 billion metric tons of ice per year since the 1970s, according to the European Union’s Earth Observation Programme, Copernicus. As melting continues, the number of Americans projected to live in areas at risk of severe coastal flooding by 2050 is expected to top 2.6 million – and nearly one-third of these people reside in Florida. 

According to data from Realtor.com, the median list price of a Florida home fell by 1.7% between December 2024 and December 2025. In many of the state’s coastal areas facing growing risks of severe flooding in the coming decades, home values have declined even faster. This trend will likely continue for the foreseeable future, as Florida home prices are expected to fall by an average of 1.9% in 2026, with double-digit declines in parts of the Gulf coast, according to a recent report from Realtor.com. 

Using data from Climate Central and Realtor.com, Climate Crisis 247 identified the high flood-risk Florida housing markets where home values are cratering. We reviewed the change in median list prices between December 2024 and December 2025 for 62 counties along the Florida coast, and ranked those counties on the share of the population projected to face risk of severe flooding by the year 2050. Only counties with declining home values were considered. Supplemental data on future flooding and sea-level rise projections are from Climate Central. 

Among the 10 counties on this list, median list prices have fallen by as much as 7.8% in the last year. In a majority of cases, the most recent year-over-year home value decline is a continuation of a longer-term trend, as eight of these counties also reported falling list prices between 2023 and 2024. Collectively, these counties are home to nearly 3.8 million people, and by 2050, more than 172,000 of them are projected to be at risk of severe flooding. 

an aerial view of a beach and a city
Photo by Ano__ P_ on Unsplash

10. Miami Dade County, Florida

  • Population at risk of severe flooding by 2050: 3.3% (86,606 people)
  • Flooding projections by 2050: at least one 1.9 ft. flood per year
  • Expected local sea-level rise by 2100: 2.3 feet
  • Median home list price in Dec. 2025: $599,999 (-4.6% from Dec. 2024)
  • Active list count in Dec. 2025: 18569 homes (+11.1% from Dec. 2024)
  • Typical time a home spent on the market in Dec. 2025: 91 days (+12.4% from Dec. 2024)

9. St Johns County, Florida

  • Population at risk of severe flooding by 2050: 4.2% (11,379 people)
  • Flooding projections by 2050: at least one 2.6 ft. flood per year
  • Expected local sea-level rise by 2100: 2.3 feet
  • Median home list price in Dec. 2025: $528,659 (-2.5% from Dec. 2024)
  • Active list count in Dec. 2025: 2249 homes (-3.3% from Dec. 2024)
  • Typical time a home spent on the market in Dec. 2025: 90 days (+3.5% from Dec. 2024)

8. Charlotte County, Florida

  • Population at risk of severe flooding by 2050: 4.9% (9,108 people)
  • Flooding projections by 2050: at least one 2.4 ft. flood per year
  • Expected local sea-level rise by 2100: 2.3 feet
  • Median home list price in Dec. 2025: $384,750 (-2.6% from Dec. 2024)
  • Active list count in Dec. 2025: 3774 homes (-2.8% from Dec. 2024)
  • Typical time a home spent on the market in Dec. 2025: 89 days (+9.3% from Dec. 2024)

7. Citrus County, Florida

  • Population at risk of severe flooding by 2050: 5.6% (8,681 people)
  • Flooding projections by 2050: at least one 2.5 ft. flood per year
  • Expected local sea-level rise by 2100: 2.2 feet
  • Median home list price in Dec. 2025: $307,725 (-4.1% from Dec. 2024)
  • Active list count in Dec. 2025: 1818 homes (+22.4% from Dec. 2024)
  • Typical time a home spent on the market in Dec. 2025: 92 days (+22.8% from Dec. 2024)

6. Okaloosa County, Florida

  • Population at risk of severe flooding by 2050: 5.8% (12,306 people)
  • Flooding projections by 2050: at least one 2.3 ft. flood per year
  • Expected local sea-level rise by 2100: 2.1 feet
  • Median home list price in Dec. 2025: $414,950 (-2.4% from Dec. 2024)
  • Active list count in Dec. 2025: 1811 homes (-4.6% from Dec. 2024)
  • Typical time a home spent on the market in Dec. 2025: 99 days (-2.0% from Dec. 2024)

5. Taylor County, Florida

  • Population at risk of severe flooding by 2050: 6.3% (1,362 people)
  • Flooding projections by 2050: at least one 2.6 ft. flood per year
  • Expected local sea-level rise by 2100: 2.1 feet
  • Median home list price in Dec. 2025: $281,750 (-5.8% from Dec. 2024)
  • Active list count in Dec. 2025: 91 homes (+52.1% from Dec. 2024)
  • Typical time a home spent on the market in Dec. 2025: 115 days (+47.1% from Dec. 2024)

4. Wakulla County, Florida

  • Population at risk of severe flooding by 2050: 9.1% (3,079 people)
  • Flooding projections by 2050: at least one 2.6 ft. flood per year
  • Expected local sea-level rise by 2100: 2.1 feet
  • Median home list price in Dec. 2025: $323,725 (-0.8% from Dec. 2024)
  • Active list count in Dec. 2025: 198 homes (-5.3% from Dec. 2024)
  • Typical time a home spent on the market in Dec. 2025: 64 days (+0.4% from Dec. 2024)

3. Bay County, Florida

  • Population at risk of severe flooding by 2050: 13.7% (23,920 people)
  • Flooding projections by 2050: at least one 2.5 ft. flood per year
  • Expected local sea-level rise by 2100: 2.1 feet
  • Median home list price in Dec. 2025: $406,950 (-4.3% from Dec. 2024)
  • Active list count in Dec. 2025: 2689 homes (+5.3% from Dec. 2024)
  • Typical time a home spent on the market in Dec. 2025: 107 days (+2.9% from Dec. 2024)

2. Walton County, Florida

  • Population at risk of severe flooding by 2050: 14.5% (10,889 people)
  • Flooding projections by 2050: at least one 2.4 ft. flood per year
  • Expected local sea-level rise by 2100: 2.1 feet
  • Median home list price in Dec. 2025: $864,450 (-7.8% from Dec. 2024)
  • Active list count in Dec. 2025: 2315 homes (+9.2% from Dec. 2024)
  • Typical time a home spent on the market in Dec. 2025: 107 days (-1.4% from Dec. 2024)

1. Franklin County, Florida

  • Population at risk of severe flooding by 2050: 38.7% (4,821 people)
  • Flooding projections by 2050: at least one 2.6 ft. flood per year
  • Expected local sea-level rise by 2100: 2.1 feet
  • Median home list price in Dec. 2025: $659,968 (-5.6% from Dec. 2024)
  • Active list count in Dec. 2025: 289 homes (+2.3% from Dec. 2024)
  • Typical time a home spent on the market in Dec. 2025: 109 days (-6.9% from Dec. 2024)


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