Tik Tok Diplomacy ahead? Front-loading Trump, China girds for trade battle

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China has wasted no time preparing for a trade war with President-elect Donald Trump. Chinese exports, many of them renewables products such as solar panels, surged almost 7% in November, including to their highest levels to the U.S. in more than two years.

Analysts said behind the surge are a combination of front-loading shipments before January, sending more products to other Asian nations to be assembled and shipped to the U.S., and even American consumers ordering more goods from Chinese websites.

No doubt global trade politics are at play here, but China plays hardball. Witness its sudden decision this week to investigate Nvidia for antitrust violations, which knocked a chunk off the high-flying AI company’s stock price. Almost all of the so-called Magnificent 7 tech giants could suffer this harassment if things start to get ugly.

Tik Tok diplomacy
What could diffuse it? Ironically, it could come down to TikTok. The U.S. ban on the social media app is set to take effect Jan. 19, one day before Trump becomes president, if it is not spun off by its Chinese parent, ByteDance. An appeals court rejected a Chinese appeal this week.

But if the Supreme Court weighs in and the case gets extended into Trump’s term, it becomes what could be an extraordinary bargaining chip. Maybe there is too much intrigue here, but that’s the way Trump likes it; with him as the dealmaker.

In the meantime, battle preparations are on.