Unemployment Numbers Wrong Due To Hurricanes
The jobs number that will come out at the end of the week will be wrong, based on either job gained or lost and the unemployment rate. They will be substantially affected by Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton and should be provided with an asterisk.
*Economy And Weather
*Climate And The Global Economy
The consensus is that the economy added 250,000 jobs in October, and the unemployment rate will stay near historic lows at 4%. According to the EPI, “The hurricanes will likely significantly depress job growth for the month (most estimates are that it will depress growth by roughly 50,000 jobs but leave open the possibility of a significantly larger effect).” Intelligent observers should have made these calculations already.
The data might affect economic policy somewhat, particularly at the Federal Reserve level and during the presidential election. The Fed assumes that a strong economy means rates can be cut. However, it would be wrong to think the Fed will disregard the October distortions.
Jobs Data And Election
The election and its effect on the economy over the next year or more could be substantial. The general public will not ignore newspaper headlines of weak job growth and a higher unemployment rate this close to Tuesday’s voting. Each side already has a playbook for this.
Job number distortions have occurred before because of weather calamities. As the effects of climate change worsen, many government numbers will become less accurate.
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