US Counties on Track for Warmest Year on Record

For much of the month of December, large swaths of the country have been shrouded in a current of Arctic air. The polar vortex brought sub-zero temperatures to parts of the Midwest and Northeast, setting new daily record lows. But while the final month of 2025 has been abnormally cold, the 11 preceding months of the year have not. 

Between January and November of this year, the average temperature in the continental United States was 56.2°F, making 2025 the fifth warmest year on record so far since at least 1895. At the local level, there are many parts of the country where 2025 is on pace to become the warmest year in history. Across seven states, there are 10 counties where the average year-to-date temperature is in line with previous record highs, and another 10 counties where the average temperature so far is high enough to surpass the previous record. 

Using data from the National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration, Climate Crisis 247 identified the U.S. counties where 2025 is most likely to become the warmest year in history. We reviewed data for over 3,100 counties and county equivalents and ranked them on the average local temperature between January and November 2025. Only places where the average temperature over the first 11 months of this year was higher than it has ever been over the same period in any previous year since record keeping began in 1895 were considered. Supplemental data on the warmest full-years on record is also from NOAA. Population data are five-year estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2023 American Community Survey. Counties are ranked on their average temperature between January and November, 2025, in ascending order. 

The 10 counties on this list are concentrated in two states – Mississippi and Utah. In these places, average temperatures in the first 11 months of 2025 exceed the 20th century baseline average by anywhere from 3.2°F to 4.6°F. Still, it is important to note that an unseasonably cold December could have an outsized impact on the annual average, and bring the full-year’s average temperature down closer to the mean. Already this month, two new daily record lows were reported at a weather station in Utah. 

10. Piute County, Utah

• Average temperature, January-November 2025: 48.2°F (4.1°F warmer than historical norm)
• Historical average temperature, January-November 1901-2000: 44.1°F
• Warmest full year(s) on record: 2017, 2024 (46.4°F)
• County population: 1,705

9. Iron County, Utah

• Average temperature, January-November 2025: 53.0°F (3.7°F warmer than historical norm)
• Historical average temperature, January-November 1901-2000: 49.3°F
• Warmest full year(s) on record: 2024 (51.5°F)
• County population: 60,201

8. Garfield County, Utah

• Average temperature, January-November 2025: 53.1°F (4.0°F warmer than historical norm)
• Historical average temperature, January-November 1901-2000: 49.1°F
• Warmest full year(s) on record: 2017, 2024 (51.2°F)
• County population: 5,170

7. Wayne County, Utah

• Average temperature, January-November 2025: 56.0°F (4.4°F warmer than historical norm)
• Historical average temperature, January-November 1901-2000: 51.5°F
• Warmest full year(s) on record: 2024 (53.8°F)
• County population: 2,557

6. Grand County, Utah

• Average temperature, January-November 2025: 56.0°F (4.6°F warmer than historical norm)
• Historical average temperature, January-November 1901-2000: 51.4°F
• Warmest full year(s) on record: 2017, 2024 (53.8°F)
• County population: 9,697

5. San Juan County, Utah

• Average temperature, January-November 2025: 57.3°F (3.7°F warmer than historical norm)
• Historical average temperature, January-November 1901-2000: 53.6°F
• Warmest full year(s) on record: 2024 (55.3°F)
• County population: 14,466

4. Montgomery County, Mississippi

• Average temperature, January-November 2025: 67.0°F (3.2°F warmer than historical norm)
• Historical average temperature, January-November 1901-2000: 63.9°F
• Warmest full year(s) on record: 1921 (65.4°F)
• County population: 9,708

3. Attala County, Mississippi

• Average temperature, January-November 2025: 67.5°F (3.3°F warmer than historical norm)
• Historical average temperature, January-November 1901-2000: 64.2°F
• Warmest full year(s) on record: 2024 (65.9°F)
• County population: 17,685

2. Carroll County, Mississippi

• Average temperature, January-November 2025: 68.2°F (4.0°F warmer than historical norm)
• Historical average temperature, January-November 1901-2000: 64.2°F
• Warmest full year(s) on record: 2024 (66.6°F)
• County population: 9,828

1. Holmes County, Mississippi

• Average temperature, January-November 2025: 69.0°F (3.9°F warmer than historical norm)
• Historical average temperature, January-November 1901-2000: 65.0°F
• Warmest full year(s) on record: 2024 (67.4°F)
• County population: 16,491