Very High Risk Of Home Price Slump In Tampa And Phoenix

David Keindel Phoenix

CoreLogic has issued its US Home Price Insights –  March 2025. Its primary conclusion was that “Florida and Arizona top the charts for markets where the risk of price decline is very high.”

Home prices are expected to rise by 3.6% from January 2025 to January 2026. The national median home price as of January 2025 was $375,000. It requires an income of $83,400 to afford that home.

Hottest Markets In US

All the “hottest” markets are in the northern tier of states, except San Jose, which has the highest-priced homes in America. The others are Syracuse, Bridgeport, Rochester, New Haven, Newark, Hartford, Lake County, Buffalo, and New York City.

Five markets—Winterhaven, Phoenix, Tampa, and West Palm Beach — had a “very high” risk of price decline over the period.

Weather In Orlando

Winterhaven is south of Orlando and suffered damage from Hurricane Milton and Helele. The same was true of Tampa. Phoenix and Tuscon regularly have temperatures over 100 degrees F and sometimes 110 degrees F. West Palm Beach has been in the path of Atlantic hurricanes, which are forecast to be more frequent and more violent. 

One thing that the three markets have in common is that their populations have grown positively over the last two decades. Weather-related challenges and the high insurance rates they bring appear to be about to reverse that.


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