Where The Climate Is Driving Home Prices Higher

Climate considerations are increasingly influencing where Americans choose to live. According to Kin’s 2026 Homeownership Trends Report, nearly half (49%) of American homeowners are considering moving in 2026 due to climate-related concerns. The report also reveals that 93% of Americans are preparing for weather events that could damage their homes within the next three years, with over two-thirds expecting the frequency of extreme weather in their area to worsen this year compared to last. The survey of 1,000 adults was conducted in December 2025.

Several other studies reach similar conclusions, including “15 Safest US Cities for Climate Change in 2025” from Greenshot, and “Where Should I Live in the US with Climate Change?” from Greenly.

These studies consistently find that many people would relocate from areas experiencing the most climate damage. Florida, South Texas, Louisiana, southern Atlantic states, and parts of the West affected by wildfires are increasingly viewed as poor long-term places to live. The consequences of living in these areas are already apparent. A study from the Yale Program on Climate Change Communications, titled “About half of Americans understand that global warming is increasing homeowners insurance costs,” found that a majority of Americans (69%) believe disasters such as hurricanes, floods, and wildfires contribute to rising homeowners insurance costs, with nearly half (47%) saying such disasters contribute “a lot.”

The negative effects in places like Florida may have already begun. The S&P Case-Shiller home price monthly study shows that home prices in Florida cities have begun to erode, especially in Tampa and Miami.

Climate-Safe Regions Show Price Growth

Most climate change studies identify several U.S. regions as least likely to experience violent climate events. These typically include parts of New England inland from the Atlantic Coast, much of the Midwest, and areas in western New York State and western Pennsylvania.

According to Case-Shiller and data from Realtor.com and Zillow,, home prices in the U.S. continue to rise 1% to 2% year-over-year. However, home prices are rising more rapidly in areas considered “climate safe,” with some showing year-over-year changes in the high single digits or low double digits.

The base price of homes is another important factor. Home prices across most “climate safe” areas remain relatively low, partly because many have experienced declining populations for years. Over the last several decades, people have moved south to Florida, Texas, and Arizona.

Detroit exemplifies a city in a “climate safe” area that has lost much of its population. The city had 1.85 million residents within city limits in 1950 but only 684,000 in 2024, as major industries left the Midwest over recent decades.

The research reviewed explicitly shows that the Midwest and Great Lakes regions appeal broadly because they’re “fairly affordable and provide relatively safe havens against climate-related events like wildfires and floods.” This helps sustain demand and supports above-average price gains amid broader market cooling.

Affordable Climate-Safe Markets

Areas where climate considerations appear to be driving home prices higher include:

Midwest/Great Lakes metros: Toledo, OH ($195,000 median); Grand Rapids, MI; Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse, NY; Pittsburgh, PA; Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA; Cleveland-Elyria, OH; Detroit, MI; St. Louis, MO-IL; and Memphis, TN—all under $300,000. For context, the median home price in the U.S. in the final quarter of last year was $420,000, according to the National Association of Realtors.

Northeast pockets: Hartford, CT; Scranton–Wilkes-Barre, PA; and upstate NY areas. The Zillow average home value for the Scranton-Wilkes-Barre-Hazleton metro is $218,600, while Elmira, NY is $156,000 and Binghamton, NY is $194,000.

Realtor.com showed that the markets with the fastest rising home prices in 2025 were Toledo, Syracuse, Scranton, Rochester, Hartford, Baltimore, New Haven, Winston-Salem, Albany, Milwaukee, and Columbia. Eight of these are in the climate-safe zones described above.

Virtually no forecasts predict that weather will become safer in places like Florida. Risks are so high in some areas that home insurance companies have completely exited these markets, driving rates up further. According to the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies, “As a result of market conditions, private insurers have faced unprofitability, insolvencies, and/or exited markets altogether in states like California, Louisiana, and Florida.”

People facing the stress of increasingly dangerous weather and rising insurance rates are starting to leave. The data shows they are moving to areas like the Midwest, where housing is also more affordable.