Winter is Warming Up In These Cold American Cities

Temperatures have been steadily rising around the world since the mid-1970s, and the pace of global warming appears to have accelerated in recent years. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2025 was the third-warmest year since record keeping began in 1850 – and each of the 10 highest average annual temperatures in history were recorded since 2015. In the United States, historical temperature data reveals a similar trend. 

Between 1901 and 2000, the average annual temperature in the Continental U.S. was 52.0°F. In each of the last 10 years, average temperatures in the Lower 48 have exceeded the 20th century norm by anywhere from 0.7°F to 3.5°F, according to NOAA. While higher temperatures have had a measurable impact on all four seasons, for much of the country, changes have been most palpable during the winter months. 

A recent study, published by the independent research organization Climate Central, analyzed historical local temperature data for the meteorological winter, a period that starts at the beginning of December and ends with the month of February, in American 244 cities. Of those cities, 239 have warmer winters now than they did in 1970, with an average seasonal warming of 3.9°F. If this rate of warming persists, winter as we know it may all but disappear in many of America’s coldest cities by the end of the century. 

Using data from Climate Central, Climate Crisis 247 identified the 10 U.S. cities where the winter season may vanish in the coming decades. Cities are ranked on the projected change in average winter temperatures between 2020 and 2100. Projections are based on the calculated rate of absolute annual change derived from the observed change in average winter temperatures between 1970 and 2025. Average annual winter temperature changes were multiplied by the number of years between 2020 and 2100, and added to each city’s 30-year average winter temperature, based on NOAA data from 1991 to 2020. Only cities with populations of at least 100,000, and where average winter temperatures will climb from less than 32°F in 2020 to over 32°F in 2100, were considered. 

Among the cities on this list, average winter temperatures currently range from 21.9°F to 30.6°F. At the observed rate of change since 1970, winter temperatures will climb as high as 39.6°F in these same places – by anywhere from 8.0°F to 10.6°F. 

10. Lansing, Michigan

• Estimated increase in avg. winter temperature, 2020-2100: +8.0°F
• Projected average winter temperature in 2100: 34.0°F (typical winter in Salt Lake City, Utah today)
• Current average winter temperature: 26.0°F
• Total change in average winter temperature, 1970-2025: +5.5°F
• Estimated increase in avg. winter temperature, 2020-2100: +8.0°F
• Local population: 112,546

9. Grand Rapids, Michigan

• Estimated increase in avg. winter temperature, 2020-2100: +8.0°F
• Projected average winter temperature in 2100: 35.2°F (typical winter in Wichita, Kansas today)
• Current average winter temperature: 27.2°F
• Total change in average winter temperature, 1970-2025: +5.5°F
• Estimated increase in avg. winter temperature, 2020-2100: +8.0°F
• Local population: 197,768

8. Detroit, Michigan

• Estimated increase in avg. winter temperature, 2020-2100: +8.0°F
• Projected average winter temperature in 2100: 36.4°F (typical winter in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania today)
• Current average winter temperature: 28.4°F
• Total change in average winter temperature, 1970-2025: +5.5°F
• Estimated increase in avg. winter temperature, 2020-2100: +8.0°F
• Local population: 636,644

7. Cleveland, Ohio

• Estimated increase in avg. winter temperature, 2020-2100: +8.0°F
• Projected average winter temperature in 2100: 38.6°F (typical winter in Johnson City, Tennessee today)
• Current average winter temperature: 30.6°F
• Total change in average winter temperature, 1970-2025: +5.5°F
• Estimated increase in avg. winter temperature, 2020-2100: +8.0°F
• Local population: 367,523

6. Rockford, Illinois

• Estimated increase in avg. winter temperature, 2020-2100: +8.6°F
• Projected average winter temperature in 2100: 33.6°F (typical winter in Topeka, Kansas today)
• Current average winter temperature: 25.0°F
• Total change in average winter temperature, 1970-2025: +5.9°F
• Estimated increase in avg. winter temperature, 2020-2100: +8.6°F
• Local population: 147,649

5. Peoria, Illinois

• Estimated increase in avg. winter temperature, 2020-2100: +9.2°F
• Projected average winter temperature in 2100: 38.0°F (typical winter in Louisville, Kentucky today)
• Current average winter temperature: 28.8°F
• Total change in average winter temperature, 1970-2025: +6.3°F
• Estimated increase in avg. winter temperature, 2020-2100: +9.2°F
• Local population: 112,126

4. Albany, New York

• Estimated increase in avg. winter temperature, 2020-2100: +9.6°F
• Projected average winter temperature in 2100: 36.7°F (typical winter in Springfield, Missouri today)
• Current average winter temperature: 27.1°F
• Total change in average winter temperature, 1970-2025: +6.6°F
• Estimated increase in avg. winter temperature, 2020-2100: +9.6°F
• Local population: 100,081

3. Toledo, Ohio

• Estimated increase in avg. winter temperature, 2020-2100: +9.7°F
• Projected average winter temperature in 2100: 39.6°F (typical winter in Olympia, Washington today)
• Current average winter temperature: 29.9°F
• Total change in average winter temperature, 1970-2025: +6.7°F
• Estimated increase in avg. winter temperature, 2020-2100: +9.7°F
• Local population: 268,461

2. Green Bay, Wisconsin

• Estimated increase in avg. winter temperature, 2020-2100: +10.2°F
• Projected average winter temperature in 2100: 32.1°F (typical winter in Kansas City, Missouri today)
• Current average winter temperature: 21.9°F
• Total change in average winter temperature, 1970-2025: +7.0°F
• Estimated increase in avg. winter temperature, 2020-2100: +10.2°F
• Local population: 106,585

1. Milwaukee, Wisconsin

• Estimated increase in avg. winter temperature, 2020-2100: +10.6°F
• Projected average winter temperature in 2100: 37.3°F (typical winter in Reno, Nevada today)
• Current average winter temperature: 26.7°F
• Total change in average winter temperature, 1970-2025: +7.3°F
• Estimated increase in avg. winter temperature, 2020-2100: +10.6°F
• Local population: 569,756