LA Wildfire Damage Surges Toward $275 Billion, Will Top Hurricane Katrina’s
A new study forecasts that the damage of the Los Angeles area wildfires will hit $275 billion. This would make it the most costly natural disaster in US history.
*Weakness Of Forecasts
*Why Hurricane Forecasts Miss The Point
*Could There Be A Category 6 Hurricane?
The forecast comes from AccuWeather which uses a non-traditional method. It shows “what has already occurred and expected long-term impacts on people’s health and the economy of the region.” The second part of the analysis is hard to make and not likely to be accurate. However, the point is powerful.
The previous “expensive” designation went to Hurricane Katrina in 2005. It nearly destroyed New Orleans, and did damage to several states along the Gulf of Mexico. It killed 1,392 people. The LA wildfire number will not come close to that.
Los Angeles Compared To New Orleans
The comparison between LA and Katrina is apples and oranges. Most Katrina estimates do not look at future lost business or economic effects.
It is not a good idea to compare the cost set of one storm to others, particularly when the calculation measures inflation. Inflation is usually a national figure. It does not take into account local price changes.
Should the LA fires be measured again Katrina’s costs? There is no way to know.
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