Palm Beach and Tampa Face Huge Real Estate Risk

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Once a month, CoreLogic issues a report on the national real estate market titled US Home Price Insights. The latest version is for February. Among the trends covered are national real estate prices–those in states and major metros. One portion of the data covers cities most likely to have price declines. The list for February includes five cities–Tampa, Palm Beach, Atlanta, Spokane, and Daytona Beach. Each has a 70% chance of decline in the next year.

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There are two notable things about these markets. The first is that drops in real estate values are against upward national and metro trends. “The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will decline on a month-over-month basis (-0.2%) from December 2023 to January 2023 and increase by 2.8% on a year-over-year basis from December 2023 to December 2024.”

CoreLogic does not give a reason for the forecast drop in these five markets, three of which are in Florida. However, there is a growing body of evidence that people have started to use climate change as a reason for where they plan to buy their next homes. 

There is an irony about the chance of price drops in Palm Beach and Tampa. Each has been among the fastest-growing markets based on population since the pandemic’s start. People have relocated to Florida cities for better climate and low taxes. What they will find, in addition, are hurricanes, high winds, and floods.

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