The Farmers’ Almanac Is Wrong Half The Time
The Farmer’s Almanac was founded in 1818. There is a running myth that it is better at forecasting the weather than NOAA, Accuweather, or Weather.com. The fact of the matter is that research shows it is right about half the time, which is the equivalent of flipping a coin.
A study from the University of Illinois showed that, based on its weekly forecasts, it is correct 52% of the time. Its weekly forecasts are made two years in advance, which makes the odds of the Almanac’s short-term forecast being accurate almost impossible.
Another reason to prove that the Almanac’s record is better than average is that several parts of its forecasts are vague. According to meteorologist Alexander Kirk, the forecasts use terms that include “very cold, snowy” and that the Northwest should “prepare for a cold winter.” A professional weather forecaster’s work would be thrown out if that were a yardstick.
Media Following
The lack of accuracy by the Almanac makes it strange that the media follows its recommendations at all. Its winter forecast has received extensive coverage. Its forecasts go down to the state level, which means the odds they are correct are even less acceptable.
The Almanac says it has a secret formula. This is kept in a black box in Dublin, NH. That is where it should stay.
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