100 Million Chinese EVs Could be Impossible

By Douglas McIntyre  •  September 12, 2026
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China has announced that it expects 40% of new cars sold in 2030 will be EVs. The US had equally ambitious goals and set $7,500 federal tax credits. But those are gone and have been since last September. Meanwhile, EV sales in the US dropped about 20% in the first half of the year.

The situation in China is different in two ways. It can offer very substantial incentives to buyers. That is a decision by the local government that can’t be overruled or even criticized. China also has over 100 EV companies. Some will be out of business in the next year. This is due to cutthroat competition, as each jockey tries to make sales.

However, the Chinese government can keep as many of these companies in business as it would like. It subsidizes companies across a broad range of industries.

China can also build as many public charging stations as it would like for the same reason. The government can build and install them. Charging stations have been a roadblock to US sales because there are relatively few outside big cities.

China has an incentive that the US does not, or at least not at such a serious level, which means outside large cities

And China has a more serious air pollution problem. Some of its cities have the most polluted air in the world. Part of this is the use of coal for home heating and industry. China is installing solar energy at the fastest rate of any nation in the world. EVs would accelerate the clean-air initiative.

It would be surprising if EV sales were more than 20% of new car sales by 2030. That figure is about 5% today. The largest car companies, like Ford, that hoped to increase EV sales have failed. That leaves most sales to Tesla. And, its sales in America have dropped in the last two years.

China may make its target. The US not longer has one.

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