Climate non-catastrope: Why Trump pulling out of Paris agreement (again) doesn't matter

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As climate negotiators descend on Baku, Azerbaijan, this week for the United Nations annual climate summit, COP29, the one and only story on everyone’s mind is of course Donald Trump, and whether the president-elect will pull the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement for a second time.

The bigger question we have is who cares? The Paris Agreement, now almost 10 years old, was hailed as a landmark deal to fight global warming on a coordinated basis when it was announced in 2015. Even though it was non-binding, it set ambitious goals for countries to take steps to help keep average global temperatures from increasing more than 1.5°C from where they were in 1900.

A decade later, scientists are confident that 2024 will be the first year that temperatures have averaged above that level, and they’re concerned temps could blow through 2°C and even approach 3°C by the end of the century, which would render large parts of the earth uninhabitable.

As for international government efforts, Climate Action Tracker reports that none of the 195 countries which signed the agreement have been able to fully meet their Paris pledges, though a handful from Africa and also Costa Rica are considered to be on track to do what is necessary to meet the 1.5°C. goal.

An opportunity for China
Rather than worry about what Trump might do to global cooperation, the countries who are still serious about making climate mitigation a priority should regroup and quickly adapt to a world without meaningful U.S. government participation. That world will largely be led by China, which is thrilled Trump is pulling U.S. participation back as it will create inroads for its renewable energy products and materials elsewhere in the world. India sees a major advantage too.

Alas, Paris seems dead in the water to us. Perhaps the efforts in Baku will revive it, but going in, we note that of all the global leaders who talk a good game on climate cooperation, only the UK’s Keir Starmer is among the G7 leaders to make it to Azerbaijan this month.