Don't choke on your curry: Why India is super-unlikely to Pass U.S. As No.3 Polluter

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There have long been predictions that India will take the second position on the list of nations that are the world’s largest polluters. With 1.45 billion people, the largest population in the world, an advanced industrial capacity and energy provided to many people and businesses by fossil fuels, it has been seen as a growing climate menace.

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At present, the U.S. is the No.2 among the culprits, with China first place and certain to stay there. But is it a real possibility that India will leapfrog America? Near to impossible.

One measure of pollution is CO2 emissions, with China contributing 31% of the world’s total. The US is 16% and India’s figure is 7%. China and India use massive amounts of coal for energy consumption and as their economies continue to industrialize, fossil fuel use will become more widespread.

Meanwhile, fossil fuel use has begun level out, but won’t be gone for decades. In addition — and way beyond China and India — 28% of America’s greenhouse gas emissions are from transportation, with another 23% is from industrial use and 25% coming from the generation of electricity. But as AI data farms grow, this latter percentage will increase, meaning that there would need to be a surge in nuclear, wind and solar energy to make up the difference.

The growth in each of these, however, is modest compared to the increase in demand, with funding for solar and wind power slow compared with many nations, most notably China. The federal government has helped, but private capital views investments in the sector as risky; meanwhile, nuclear plant development has begun, but it will be years before small plants are proven successful and pass regulatory hurdles.