2024 Is On Pace to Be the Hottest Year Ever
This past January, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that average global temperatures hit an all-time high in 2023, breaking the previous record set in 2016 by a historic margin of 0.27 degrees Fahrenheit. In the same report, NOAA scientists predicted a one-in-three chance that 2024 would be even warmer. But global temperature data from the first three months of the year suggest that the odds are likely far higher.
New data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service and the European Commission shows that 2024 is already on pace to be the hottest year on record. Through March 31, 2024, there have been 91 days so far this year – and 54 of them, or nearly 60%, have been hotter than the comparable calendar day every year going back to 1940, according to the Copernicus Climate Pulse tool.
Of the 54 record-breaking days this year, air temperatures have been anywhere from 1 to 1.9 degrees Fahrenheit above the global average in the period from 1990 to 2020. Even among the days in 2024 that have not broken records, average global air temperatures have been at least 0.9 degrees above the baseline reference period.
Sea surface temperature abnormalities in the first quarter of 2024 are even more alarming. Every day this year, the ocean surface has been warmer than it has been in every comparable calendar day since record keeping began in 1979. In each of the 91 days of available data so far this year, sea surface temperatures have exceeded the 1991-2020 baseline average by as much as 1.3 degrees Fahrenheit, and never by less than 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit.
It is important to note that these readings are global averages, and in different places around the world, temperatures can be higher or lower than historic norms at the same time. But so far this year, millions of Americans have already experienced record-high temperatures. According to NOAA data, this past February, average monthly temperatures in four states – Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, and Wisconsin – hit all-time highs. In these states, the average temperature in February 2024 exceeded the month’s 1901 to 2000 benchmark average by anywhere from 12.1 to 17.4 degrees Fahrenheit.
Whether or not this warming trend continues at a similar pace through the rest of the year, or in subsequent years, remains to be seen. But if it does, the consequences will be dire, as even a fraction of a degree increase in average temperatures over a sustained period will dramatically change life as we know it.
According to a report from NASA, if average global temperatures climb by 1.5 degrees Celsius, 14% of the world’s population will suffer from extreme heat waves at least once every five years. If temperatures rise by 2.0 degrees Celsius, 37% of the global population will regularly face severe heat waves.
By the end of the century, that same 0.5 degree Celsius increase in average global temperatures could expose as many as 270 million more people worldwide to water scarcity. It will also likely cause an additional 4 inches of sea level rise, reduced agricultural output, and mass extinction of insects, plants, and vertebrates.
This year, with each passing day, global temperature data suggests that at least 2.0 degrees Celsius of warming appears increasingly likely.
