Hurricane Season One Of The Least Active On Record
Yale Climate Connection commented about 2025, “It’s been one of the least active years on record for tropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere.” Erin is the only major storm the hurricane season produced. It did not make landfall in the US.
In May, NOAA predicted that 2025 would have above-normal Atlantic hurricane activity. It forecast that there would be 13 to 19 named storms. It also forecast 3 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5).
The number of storms this year would need to spike considerably to hit the NOAA forecast.
Among the reasons scientists give for the low number of storms is wind activity in the Caribbean, a high-pressure area near Bermuda, and a rapid change in temperature in the Atlantic. None of those may change.
Hurricane Erin
Ironically, Hurricane Erin may make the hurricane season less violent. It sucked up warm water on the surface of the Atlantic, which is among the reasons it moved from a Category 1 to a Category 5 hurricane so quickly. The effect is that the surface temperature of the Atlantic in the areas where Erin hit has been deprived of high-heat water. The next hurricane will have less warm water fuel.
Long-term forecasts are notoriously inaccurate. The assumption about hurricane season is an assumption about global warming. The assumption concerning that is accurate. That every season looks worse than the one before it, really doesn’t work.
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