Will This Be The Most Destructive Wildfire Season In US History?
Here is the most important fact from early in the US wildfire season. There have been 34,262 wildfire incidents so far in 2026. These have burned 2,733,586 acres. Both are records for the last 10 years, for the comparable time period. That data is from the National Interagency Coordination Center.
And, the summer has not officially begun. Neither have the hottest, and in many places, the driest period of the year.
The U.S. Drought Monitor shows how dangerous the situation has become across an unusually large part of the country. Drought is a problem in the Southwest, as usual. However, the worst drought areas in America are in Nebraska, southern Idaho, and Colorado. Additionally, there is a large drought-plagued area that runs from southern Virginia to northern Florida. These are not drought-prone areas.
A Summer Of Records
It is impossible to say how hot it will be in the U.S. this summer. March temperatures may give an early clue. High-temperatures records were broken across much of the western half of the country. In some cases, temperatures were more than 20 degrees F above normal.
Europe is in the midst of the worst heat dome in its history for this time of year, or any time of year, as a matter of fact. Temperatures have reached 105 degrees F in parts of France. At least 18 people have died in that country. And the heat is widespread from the UK to the borders of Eastern Europe.
Few organizations make forecasts for the entire wildfire season. Accuweather is one of them. It expects an above-average wildfire season. “Wildfire danger is expected to increase across much of the western United States in the coming months, while other parts of the country could face periods of heightened risk amid worsening drought and summer heat.” Additionally, Accuweather points out the dangers in Virginia and Florida.
Thousand Of Mile Of Smoke
Smoke, while not usually as dangerous as the fires themselves, now spreads for thousands of miles if the fires are large enough. In 2023, smoke from wildfires in northern Canada blanketed New York City, with some of the worst air quality in recent history. Last year, fires in Colorado sent smoke east, and the cities in the Northwest had poor air quality again.
It is worth noting that the number of large wildfires in the US has recently increased. The Smokehouse Creek Fire (2024) burned over one million acres in Texas and Oklahoma. The August Complex Fire (2020) burned one million acres in Northern California. The state of Rhode Island covers about 700,000 acres.
Like Hurricane Threats
As is the case with hurricane and tornado seasons, there is no accurate way to forecast the strength of the number of incidents. However, the wildfire season is off to a fast start. And the conditions are such that the next few months will be dangerous.
