Lightning Rises As A Wildfire Risk
Wildfires start for a number of reasons. Among them are downed powerlines, campfires that are not put out, and arson. High and this list, and perhaps above them, is lightning. And, a new study shows that it will get worse.
A new study from Advancing Earth and Space Sciences, is titled “Projections of Lightning-Ignited Wildfire Risk in the Western United States..” Though by no means are all large wildfires in the West, most of the largest ones are. And, many of these have been the most costly and have endangered the most lives.
The authors used models to consider “out-to-ground” lightning activity in the future. The forecast period is from 2031 to 2050. The process utilized machine learning to combine the likelihood of lightning with dry ground conditions and atmospheric moisture.Â
Period From 2031 To 2050
During the period for which the forecast was made, lightning days would increase by 4 to 12 compared to the period from 1995 to 2022.
Based on wind patterns, particularly in July and August, the fire risk increases. Ironically, these conditions could also bring more rain and flash floods,
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