People Continue To Move To The Most Dangerous Parts Of America

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Population data from the last several decades show a huge migration from the northern US to Florida, Texas, and Arizona. In the last few years, these areas have suffered from huge storms and drought. This weather has sometimes been dangerous and certainly costly. But the migration pattern southward has not stopped.

According to Redfin, “Scores of people are moving to the parts of America endangered by wildfires, flooding, and extreme heat, even as those dangers become more frequent and intense.” The conclusion was based on a study of the highest fire-risk counties. In 2023, the net gain in population among these was 63,365. Among the most flood-prone counties, the net increase was 16,144.

The trend continues despite some rising costs in these regions. “Ballooning insurance costs and intensifying natural disasters are driving thousands of Americans out of risky areas, but those people are quickly being replaced by others for whom climate change isn’t the top concern,” said Redfin Senior Economist Elijah de la Campa. Among the reasons for migration are lowered taxes and warmer weather.

Almost all the wildfire-risk counties are in California and Texas, which also happened to be the sites of the largest wildfires this year. Home insurance costs in these areas and others have hit $15 billion this year.

In terms of flood damage, almost all the counties are in Florida. Once again, based on Hurricane Debby, there is no surprise. Houston storm costs were massive.

What will happen in the next decade? As environmental disasters become more dangerous and insurance rates rise, one would think people would move back north again.