Phoenix Heat Deaths Expected To Hit 550 Per Year
The Climate Impact Lab has released its immensely detailed Adaptation Roadmap. The authors say its goal is “measuring the impact of rising temperatures on mortality to target adaptation planning.” It examines the effects of sharply rising global temperatures. The analysis indicates that heat-related deaths will rise in many regions worldwide between now and 2050. The deaths in poor nations will be on a much larger scale than those in wealthier countries. Poor nations tend to be in the hottest regions.
The research also shows that global warming means fewer deaths from extremely cold weather. “Because a warmer climate will lead to more deaths from extreme heat, and fewer deaths from extreme cold.”
Specifically, a warming planet will reduce deaths from cold primarily in Finland, Norway, Iceland, Sweden, Canada, Greenland, and Russia. The calculation shows that deaths will rise sharply in Niger, Pakistan, Chad, Sudan, Somalia, and Ghana. Outside Africa, the places most affected will be in and around the Middle East, including Kuwait, Syria, and Iran.
In large nations geographically, temperatures can vary widely by region. So some areas within these will have larger heat deaths than others.
The regional heat sector problem occurs in America. The northern tier of states will be affected the least. These include Massachusetts, Minnesota, Idaho, and Illinois
Some states in the US will see a rise in deaths. This list is dominated by states in the southwest and west. At the top of this list are Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas.
The US cities that will suffer the most from global warming are Las Vegas and Phoenix. That should be no surprise, since the two have the most 100-degree days per year by a wide margin, according to The Weather Channel. For Las Vegas, the figure is 78 days; for Phoenix, it is 111.
Phoenix deaths are expected to rise the most across large US cities. The report says that, based on changes between now and 2050, the number will be in the hundreds per year. However, it also shows the difference between the US and poorer nations in terms of heat danger. The same is true for the world’s densely populated cities. “While warm, wealthier cities like Phoenix and Madrid are projected to lose an additional 600 and 525 lives each year, respectively, due to a warming climate, Faisalabad, Pakistan, will lose an additional 9,400 lives.”
Although the figure is not linear, the Weather Channel reports that Phoenix had approximately 100 100-degree days per year from 1990 to the start of the 21st Century. It topped 120 days for the first time in 2018. Most years since then, the number has been closer to 110 days. 2024’s number is the record at 143. There were 122 last year.
The strains on Phoenix are already evident. During the hottest days, the number of hours people can work outdoors falls sharply. Electricity use for air conditioning jumps. Visits to emergency rooms rise as well.
For the time being, no one has come up with a reason that Phoenix will not get hotter and hotter and progressively more dangerous to live in.
