10 US Cities With Shifting Biomes

In a study published in the journal PeerJ, researchers from the Open Earth Monitor Cyberinfrastructure project used high resolution data and machine learning to map how natural vegetation zones – or biomes – could shift by 2080 under different climate scenarios.

Researchers found that the composition of biomes in the United States will change considerably over the next several decades. The central U.S. will become hotter and drier, with the cool mixed forests that characterize states like Minnesota and Wisconsin giving way to the dry, grassy steppe biomes. The steppe biome will expand the most, while biomes like cool evergreen needleleaf forest and temperate deciduous broadleaf forest will shrink considerably.

Many of the country’s largest population hubs will experience complete biome shifts by the end of the century, including Reno, Los Angeles, and Seattle. A closer look at the data reveals the cities projected to undergo the greatest biome transformations in the next 50 years.

To determine the cities with changing biomes, Climate Crisis 247 reviewed spatial data from the April 2023 paper Current and future global distribution of potential biomes under climate change scenarios, published in PeerJ. Cities were ranked based on the degree of change from dominant biome type from a 1979-2013 baseline to a forecasted 2061-2080 scenario, based on the BIOME 6000 classification scheme. Forecast changes to biome landscape classification are based on RCP 8.5 scenario, or high emissions. Analysis was done in QGIS using raster data and zonal statistics. Only cities with at least 250,000 residents were considered.

10. Boston, MA

• Current biome classification: Cool mixed forest
• Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Temperate deciduous broadleaf forest
• Current population: 665,945

9. San Antonio, TX

• Current biome classification: Steppe
• Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest
• Current population: 1,445,662

8. Irvine, CA

• Current biome classification: Xerophytic woods/scrub
• Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
• Current population: 304,527

7. Santa Ana, CA

• Current biome classification: Xerophytic woods/scrub
• Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
• Current population: 311,379

6. Anaheim, CA

• Current biome classification: Xerophytic woods/scrub
• Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
• Current population: 347,111

5. Long Beach, CA

• Current biome classification: Xerophytic woods/scrub
• Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
• Current population: 462,293

4. Sacramento, CA

• Current biome classification: Xerophytic woods/scrub
• Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
• Current population: 523,600

3. Los Angeles, CA

• Current biome classification: Xerophytic woods/scrub
• Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Steppe
• Current population: 3,881,041

2. Portland, OR

• Current biome classification: Cool evergreen needleleaf forest
• Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest
• Current population: 646,101

1. Seattle, WA

• Current biome classification: Cool evergreen needleleaf forest
• Projected biome classification, 2061-2080: Warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest
• Current population: 734,603