EV Sales To Hit 20 Million This Year
According to the IEA’s new Global EV Outlook, EV sales will reach 20 million this year, a quarter of total car and light truck sales worldwide. Global sales rose 35% in the first quarter of the year.
The report’s summary of the near-term future is more optimistic than many. “Despite uncertainties in the outlook, the share of electric cars in overall car sales is set to exceed 40% in 2030 under today’s policy settings.” “Uncertain” is right.”
EV sales have been hampered, with the possible exception of China, by high retail prices, a lack of charging stations, a range far short of those for gas-powered cars, tire wear, and the ability of batteries to hold a change in cold weather. Tariffs may also play a part in demand. The US tariff on China EVs is 100%.
100% China EV Tariffs
China could cause much of the global growth on its own. “China continues to be the world’s EV manufacturing hub and is responsible for more than 70% of global production.” The IEA forecast could be correct even if the EU, UK, and US sales figures are correct.
There is also evidence that Chinese EV companies have aggressively attacked markets in Asia and South America. While none of these markets are as large as the US, in sum, they may be.
Like all forecasts, the IEAs are bound to be wrong. Three years ago, there was a good deal of certainty that 50% of new car sales in the US would be EVs by 2030. That will not happen. One of the reasons is listed in the report. “…and lower oil prices affect the fuel cost savings from using electric cars.”
In the US, gas prices for a gallon of regular are $3 and heading lower. The financial incentive to buy an EV, particularly if the federal government removes the $7,500 EV tax credit, is nearly gone.
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